Democratic turnout in Nevada less than expected

While Bernie Sanders scored an impressive victory in the Nevada caucuses, the turnout figures were actually less impressive than they appear. Leading up to the caucuses, many press articles suggested that turnout would be strong. Typical was a Vox article that said “The 2020 Nevada caucuses are on track to break a voter turnout record,” predicting that turnout would surpass the levels of 2008 and that “voter enthusiasm is high.” Even after the caucus results, some press reports reported that “Nevada sees surge in voter turnout for 2020 First in the West caucus, Democratic Party says.” Don’t believe these stories.

In reality, the Nevada turnout was surprisingly weak. This was the first year that the party had allowed four days of early voting in the caucuses, allowing voters to fill out a ballot indicating their first and second choices. After the four days of early voting, 75,000 Democrats had participated in the process. On caucus day, approximately 30,000 voters turned out for a final total of 105,195 participants. This was a significant improvement over 2016 when 84,000 voters showed up, but in 2016 the caucuses were held on a single day. Thus, the comparison is not particularly relevant. Even with the four extra days of voting, turnout was below the levels of 2008 when 117,589 people turned out to vote for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The Nevada turnout follows a similar pattern to Iowa where caucus turnout was 175,000, only slightly more than 2016 when 171,000 showed up and well below the 231,000 that participated in 2008. The turnout figures were surprising given the large number of candidates still running for the nomination and the proportional representation rules adopted by the party which should make every vote count. So far, only the primaries in New Hampshire have seen a significant increase over prior years.

Taken together, the turnout statistics suggest that the Democratic voter enthusiasm is comparable to 2016, not the 2018 midterms or 2008 when Barack Obama was running for his first term. We don’t believe that this is particularly positive news for Democrats as they look ahead to November.