The latest Democratic debate turned into a brawl as all seven candidates yelled and interrupted each other while the crowd booed and the debate moderators lost control. UVA Professor of Politics Larry Sabato tweeted during the debtate that “Debates are essential, but TV networks welcome chaos, interruptions, and theatrics. Candidates shrink in size. The party looks petty.” We completely agree and believe that many viewers may have been put off by the rudeness of the candidates.
So who won? It’s tough to say.
Bernie Sanders is the front-runner in the race and he remains so after tonight’s debate. That said, he looked old tonight and took incoming attacks from Buttigieg, Bloomberg and even Warren. We don’t think this was one of his better performances, particularly his response to questions about his support for various communist and socialist regimes like Cuba, Nicaragua and China. He also took a lot of hits on electability.
Joe Biden had a few solid moments speaking about his work on behalf of African-Americans, but he also uttered a few more memorable gaffes (ie. “150 million” people have been killed by guns in the United States). He went after Tom Steyer for having invested in private prisons and once again reverted to his strategy of angrily raising his voice when he does not know what to say. His performance tonight may have been good enough to give him a win in South Carolina.
Mike Bloomberg improved on his prior debate performance, but only slightly. He continues to come across as arrogant and out of touch. He also delivered some canned jokes that fell flat while inadvertently eliciting laughs when he said that he “bought” forty congressional candidates. On the positive side, he did bring out the contrast between his views and those of the progressives on the stage. At least on the substantive issues such as education and the economy, he came across as a pragmatist and may appeal to the few moderates left in the party.
Elizabeth Warren felt she won the last debate by going on the offensive and tried to do the same tonight. Some of her supporters may have liked it, but we found it grating. She tried to go after Bloomberg time and time again (treatment of women, stop and frisk, tax returns) and after a while it just seemed forced. Warren also tried to distinguish herself from Sanders by saying that she could get more done. We don’t think it will be enough to move her into the top 3.
Pete Buttigieg had a weak night. He kept talking when other candidates were speaking (particularly Bernie Sanders) and failed to have any memorable moments. We also doubt he made any in roads with minority voters. Buttigieg peaked in New Hampshire and is in danger of finishing fourth or fifth in South Carolina. Tonight did not help him.
Tom Steyer was back on the debate stage and may have come across as one of the more sensible people on the stage. He made an overt appeal for black voters by endorsing reparations and is trying desperately to get a top three finish in South Carolina. The problem for Steyer is that after spending hundreds of millions of his own money, he has not won a single delegate. He might win a few in South Carolina but will not win any on Super Tuesday.
Amy Klobuchar again highlighted her legislative accomplishments. She talks about them so incessantly that one might believe that she is running for Congress, rather than President. She clearly understands policy issues, but we doubt she is going to gain a lot of support after tonight.
Our view is that tonight was a draw among the top candidates. Following this debate, we believe that it’s likely going to be a three way race: Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg. Biden needs a win on Saturday in South Carolina to give him a little momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Bloomberg is likely going to be relevant on Super Tuesday given all of the money he is spending on ads. Sanders remains the favorite and the most progressive candidate in the race, but we think his chances of avoiding a contested convention may have decreased slightly tonight.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 