For years, the 4th Congressional District was known as a swing district. The Congressional seat was held by liberal Republicans like Christopher Shays and Stewart McKinney. In 2008, Democrat Jim Himes defeated Shays on the coattails of Barack Obama, winning with 51% of the vote. Himes portrayed himself as a moderate and attempted to create an image as someone who could work across party lines. A Greenwich native and former Goldman Sachs banker, Himes has held the seat ever since and won recent elections handily. In 2018, Himes defeated Harry Arora, winning 61% of the vote.
Similarly, Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District was a Republican district for years with the seat held by Republicans such as Gary Franks and Nancy Johnson. Johnson held the seat until 2008 when she also lost to Chris Murphy as part of the Obama wave. Since then, Democrats have held the seat. In 2018, Jahanna Hayes won the district with 56% of the vote.
It would seem that the Democrats have a lock on the Congressional seats in Connecticut. However, we do not believe that this is necessarily the case. Indeed, in several recent gubernatorial elections, the Republican candidate has come close to winning at the state level and has carried certain counties. For example, in 2018, Republican businessman Rob Stefanowski lost to Ned Lamont by 3% statewide but he carried several counties, including Litchfield County by a comfortable margin which comprises a significant part of Connecticut’s 5th congressional district.
Additionally, many of Connecticut’s politicians have continued to become more progressive. A good example is Representative Jim Himes who serves in the 4th Congressional District. Early in his career in Washington, Himes intentionally positioned himself as a moderate, who remained friendly to the business community. However, ten years later, Himes has moved left and today scores 97% by Progressive Punch, a perfect 100% from Planned Parenthood and another 100% from Human Rights Campaign, while getting a 10% from the Club for Growth. Himes has also become a champion of Indivisible, the progressive resistance group, and was a leader of Nancy Pelosi’s attempts to impeach President Trump. Similarly, Representative Hayes in Connecticut’s 5th district is considerably to the left of her predecessors who held this seat.
In short, both the 4th and 5th congressional districts in Connecticut are potential pick-ups for Republicans. We have seen how close these districts can be in the gubernatorial elections and with the leftward drift of the candidates that hold these seats, there is a real possibility that Republicans could challenge these seats. The key for Republicans will be to recruit capable candidates to be competitive in these races. If they do, we see a fair chance of scoring an upset in either the 5th or 4th Congressional district.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 