The primary narrative about Super Tuesday was that Joe Biden had a great night, exceeding expectations. We agree. That said, there are at least two big stories that the media seems to have missed.
First, turnout in the Republican primaries was very impressive on Super Tuesday. We knew that Democratic turnout would be aided by a very competitive race with at least four candidates (Biden, Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg) competing for votes. On the Republican side, President Trump only has token opposition in the form of Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. Amazingly, in many states, Republican turnout was roughly equal to Democratic turnout. In Texas, Democrats had roughly 2 million votes, with Biden leading with 751,000 votes. Trump somehow managed to get 1.9 million Republicans to turn out for an uncompetitive election. That is a staggering turnout. As you look across the nation in state after state, the same pattern repeated itself. This suggests that that a significant portion of the Republican electorate is very engaged.
Second, the delegate math on the Democratic side is somewhat confusing and not necessarily being accurately reported by most of the major networks. Green Papers 2020 is probably the best web site we know for allocating delegates. As of tonight, Green Papers has Biden leading with 671 delegates and Sanders at 599 delegates. The candidates that have left the race have another 171 delegates (Bloomberg 70, Warren 67, Buttigieg 27, Klobuchar 7). Sanders was able to significantly narrow the gap because he won 220 delegates in California with Biden earning 163 as Bloomberg and Warren only surpassed the viability threshold in a few congressional districts. Moreover, many pundits assume that the delegates won by the candidates that left the race will go to the candidate that they endorse. This is not correct. Importantly, it matters when a candidate drops out. If the candidate drops out before the state convention selecting the delegates to the national convention, Democrat rules state that these delegates are then awarded to the remaining candidates who were viable in that state. Thus, in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the Buttigieg and Warren delegates will likely go to Sanders, not Biden. That shifts 34 delegates to Sanders. Similarly, on Super Tuesday, the Bloomberg and Warren delegates will be split between Biden and Sanders. You have to look congressional district by congressional district to determine who will get the delegates. But based on our analysis and review of California and Texas (the two largest states where Bloomberg and Warren won sizable delegates), it’s likely to be split pretty evenly with Sanders winning a slight majority. In other Super Tuesday states, Biden probably picks up a few more delegates. In American Samoa, with Bloomberg out of the race, Tulsi Gabbard will likely win all of the delegates.
The bottom line is that we think the delegate gap between Biden and Sanders is much less than the media is reporting once you factor into what is likely to transpire at each state convention. Biden is now the favorite to win the nomination, but Sanders is definitely still in it. Next Tuesday, there will be six contests: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington … we think the swing state Michigan will be considered the biggest prize. There also could be more debates, endorsements, gaffes, and unexpected events. Stay tuned!
NewEnglandPolitics.com 