On Tuesday March 10, the Presidential primaries will resume with Joe Biden battling Bernie Sanders across six states: Michigan, Idaho, Washington, Mississippi, Missouri, and North Dakota. Based on polls and the recent elections on Super Tuesday, Biden is heavily favored in Mississippi and Missouri and slightly favored to win in Michigan. North Dakota and Idaho probably lean towards Sanders while Washington is a jump ball. Here’s what to watch for:
First, who wins Michigan and Washington. Sanders needs to win at least Washington, North Dakota and Iowa and keep Michigan close if he wants to beat Biden. A week later, Biden will likely do very well in Florida and Illinois, so Sanders has to change the narrative. He surprised Clinton in Michigan in 2016 and is hoping to do it again this year. We believe that a bigger turnout favors Biden, while Sanders is banking on a strong turnout from Muslim and young voters in Michigan. Our prediction is that Biden beats Sanders Michigan in a reasonably close primary, while Sanders squeaks out a victory in Washington. If Biden wins both states, we think the pressure for Sanders to end his campaign will grow.
Second, we always like to compare the turnout. In 2016, there were 1.2 million voters in the Democratic primary while in Washington this will be the first year that they hold a primary, rather than a caucus. On the Republican side in 2016, Republicans had 1.3 million voters turn out with Trump winning a plurality with 37% of the vote. Without a competitive primary this year, we doubt Republicans will turn out in the same number, but if turnout is anywhere near 1 million, we think that would be quite strong.
Third, we are very interested to see if Tulsi Gabbard picks up any meaningful votes. Tulsi is the only other major candidate left in the race. With Biden and Sanders both in their late 70s, there may be voters looking for an alternative. Whether Gabbard can capitalize on this is unclear. She is the only candidate who was willing to push back against the establishment in their efforts to consolidate support behind Biden to stop Sanders.
Fourth, we will be watching to see if the Democrats go ahead and hold their next debate on March 15 in Arizona. Right now, it looks like it will only be Biden and Sanders who qualify. Tulsi Gabbard won 2 delegates in American Samoa and would qualify for the debate if the same rules were applied for the last debate. However, we think the Democrats will change the debate rules such that she is not allowed to participate. A one on one debtate between Biden and Sanders poses significant risk for Biden. He has not done well in the debates so far and a direct confrontation with Sanders may reinforce fears that he lacks the mental sharpness to be President. Having Gabbard in the debate would not help either as she is anti-establishment and would likely go after Biden while helping Sanders. Biden’s camp is already jockeying to change the format and allow the candidates to sit down and answer questions from voters, rather than engaging in direct exchanges with Sanders. Sanders is salivating for a one-on-one debate that touches on social security, the Iraq War, healthcare, and student loans.
Fifth, we are monitoring Biden’s campaign schedule. Sanders is holding multiple meetings per day. In contrast, Biden seems to have adopted a strategy of holding a single event every day and making a short scripted appearance. Today, he showed up in Missouri and spoke via a teleprompter. Still, the event went off track with Biden committing another cringeworthy gaffe (“We can only re-elect Donald Trump”). We believe that Biden’s camp will try and tightly manage his appearances and try to push Sanders to unify behind Biden.
We look forward to Tuesday night to see if the Biden juggernaut continues or if Sanders can force this race to go the distance.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 