Vice President Joe Biden appears headed for another huge night. As we write, Biden has scored impressive victories over Sanders in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan. It’s possible that Sanders will eke out wins in the West Coast, but judging by the margins in Michigan (Biden +12), Missouri (Biden +28), and Mississippi (Biden +65), it seems more likely that Biden will sweep or win a few of the Western states that had once been viewed as favorable to Sanders. Sanders has the money and resources to carry on, but we would not be surprised if he withdraws soon, possibly as early as the next 48 hours. An endorsement of Biden by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be forthcoming as well. Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for President.
It is a truly remarkable turnaround for the 77 year old former Vice President and long-term U.S. Senator. Biden had a rough start to the campaign: a lackluster showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, inability to raise money or draw large crowds, poor debate showings, and repeated gaffes. Yet, just as Bernie Sanders seemed poised to grab the nomination, the Democratic establishment engineered a turnaround in South Carolina, the withdrawal of other establishment candidates and the consolidation of support behind Biden. Now, Biden is ready to carry the mantle of the Democratic Party into the fall campaign against Trump.
We believe that a Trump – Biden match up will be a very competitive election. There certainly will be a lot of speculation about who Biden selects as his running mate. We think the election will be won or lost in the mid-western states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden will campaign relentlessly in these three states. The election will be a test of whether a generic Democrat with little to no vision for the future can defeat Trump based on a promise to return to the policies of the Obama Presidency. We believe that Biden probably has an electoral edge but that Trump will have an enthusiasm advantage that will make this race very close. The question is whether Biden will follow in the footsteps of George Bush and become one of the few Vice Presidents to become President in the modern era, or whether he more closely resembles failed former Vice Presidents Walter Mondale and Al Gore.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 