As Northern Marianas Goes, so Goes the Nation?

Yesterday brought welcome relief to the Sanders campaign as Sanders bested Biden in the Northern Marianas Democratic Convention which is open to all registered Democrats. Northern Marianas? Yes, if you are like us, you know that Northern Marianas is in the Pacific but really don’t know much more. Moreover, it seems somewhat odd that Northern Marianas is voting in a Presidential nominating process when they don’t vote in the Presidential election in November.

First, let’s understand more about Northern Marianas. It is a U.S. commonwealth consisting of 14 distinct islands in the Pacific. If you look on a map, the islands are really in the middle of the Pacific, closer to Japan and the Philippines than the United States. The islands are tropical with several active volcanoes. In terms of population, there are 55,000 people living on the islands, which makes the islands about half the size of South Bend, Indiana where Pete Buttigieg was mayor. The ethnic make up of the population is largely Chamorro (indigenous to the islands) and Filipino.

132 people turned out for the Democratic Convention in Northern Marianas. That’s a pretty low turnout! 84 or 64% went for Sanders while 48 or 34% voted for Biden. Sanders won 4 delegates v. 2 for Biden. We don’t think it tells us too much about how the rest of the electorate is going to vote. Perhaps the Sanders voters are more motivated. On perhaps Biden is not appealing well to predominately Spanish speaking voters. We note that Biden did not do well in American Samoa (or Nevada) either.

Tuesday’s primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio will tell us much more. However, in terms of representation per voter, Northern Marianas is heavily over represented. In fact, in Northern Marianas, that’s 1 delegate to the Democratic Convention for every 22 voters who showed up. Compare that to New Hampshire where there were 298,000 voters and 24 delegates or a ratio of 12,000 voters to 1 delegate. Now that is pretty remarkable!