Joe Biden’s campaign to win the Democratic nomination continued to build momentum as he swept to victory over Bernie Sanders in Florida, Illinois and Arizona. Yet, Biden’s victory was overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic. Here are the key political takeaways:
First, the coronavirus is dominating media coverage, diminishing the attention paid to Biden (or Sanders). Moreover, coronavirus has caused numerous states to delay their primary or caucus until late May or early June. The result is that there will be at least a two week hiatus before we have another primary with the next events scheduled for April 4 in Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming. These events could also be delayed or postponed which means that Biden will not clinch the nomination until much closer to the Democratic Convention.
Second, the Sanders’ voters are increasingly incensed by what they see as a rigged election by the DNC. The latest person to draw the ire of the Bernie faithful is DNC Chair Tom Perez. Perez pushed for the primaries to go ahead today despite the ongoing pandemic which has forced the Sanders campaign to curtail their large scale campaign rallies which has hurt Sanders team at the polls. Perez also lashed out at the Ohio Governor for delaying that state’s primaries. Twitter now has the hashtag #TomPerezResign trending.
Third, turnout in today’s Democratic primaries was muted, probably hurt by the coronavirus, but still suggests very modest excitement for Biden. In Illinois in 2016, there were over 2.0 million voters who turned out in the Democratic Primary. This year, with over 60% of the precincts in, we have about 0.9 million voters and are likely to have turnout below 2020. In Florida, with 97% of the vote in, we have 1.7 million voters or slightly above the 1.6 million from 2016. The reality is that Democrats do not appear to be particularly motivated this year and that is a problem for Democrats.
Fourth, the coronavirus is going to dominate the headlines for the next 3-6 months. This will afford Trump the opportunity to lead the nation through a crisis. How Trump does over the next six months will likely determine whether he wins re-election. Biden is going to be in the shadows offering criticism of Trump, but we think the election will be a referendum on Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. We believe that America will rise to the challenge and overcome the coronavirus. To us, that gives Trump the advantage.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 