The coronavirus is likely to overwhelm politics, sports, economic markets and about everything else for the next several weeks. All of the upcoming primaries have been delayed several months and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has retreated to Delaware where he continues to speak to reporters and plans on giving daily coronavirus updates starting on Monday. Meanwhile, in DC., President Trump flanked by health experts, the Surgeon General and Vice President Pence hosts daily briefings with hostile reporters. It’s difficult to know what will happen with the pandemic as we truly are in unchartered territory. Accordingly, we thought we would turn to the political betting markets for insight.
First, who will win in 2020? PredictIt has Trump as a slight favorite over Biden 47% to 46%. This has been trading in a very narrow range for several weeks. We concur that this appears to be a very close race. We would have to give Trump a slight edge for the time being (more on that in an upcoming blog), but it is definitely competitive at this point and could go in either direction.
Second, who will be Biden’s running mate? Biden has pledged that he will select a female Vice President. PredictIt has the following candidates as the most likely to be the nominee: 1. Kamala Harris. 2. Amy Klobuchar. 3. Stacey Abrams. 4. Elizabeth Warren. 5. Catherine Cortez Masto. 6. Gretchen Whitmer. All of these choices are possible, but we believe that Biden’s best choice would be Klobuchar, Whitmer, or Tammy Baldwin. Why? We believe that Biden has the opportunity to flip the midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin and one of these three candidates could help him do it. They also might reassure suburban voters that Biden will be a safe candidate. Klobuchar has already been on the campaign trail, has a good record of winning in Minnesota, was one of the first to endorse Biden, and helped Biden carry Minnesota in the primary in what was certainly a major upset. Whitmer is the current governor of Michigan while Baldwin is the senator from Wisconsin. We don’t think Biden will select Abrams (a very thin resume), Harris (she attacked him over busing in the primary), Warren (she has not yet even endorsed Biden and does not run well with blue collar voters), or Masto (not well known). Our prediction is he goes with Klobuchar. We believe that Biden will play it safe and selects someone who has already been vetted and who he feels comfortable with. Klobuchar fits the bill.
Third, who will control Congress? PredictIt suggests that Republicans have about a 56% chance of retaining control over the Senate and Democrats a 70% chance of holding the House. We believe that elections tend to break in the favor of one party so we would not be surprised if Republicans or Democrats win both chambers of Congress depending on the strength or weakness of the top of the ticket.
So much can happen over the next nine months, particularly with coronavirus and the resulting economic recession that is unfolding, but at this point we predict a close election that slightly favors Trump, a Biden – Klobuchar ticket, and a higher chance that a single party controls both the Senate and the House.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 