Earlier this week, we wrote about Biden’s lackluster media performances during the coronavirus pandemic. By now, there are countless videos on YouTube capturing Biden’s confused and disjointed media performances showing an aging candidate in decline trying to hang on to his moment as the Democratic front runner. This would be troubling enough for Democrats, but now comes a credible claim of sexual assault from the 1990s by a former female Biden senate staffer. The allegations are on the surface much more credible than the claim against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh that nearly derailed his nomination in the Senate, causing every single Democratic to vote against the court pick. We won’t go into the details of the claim, but needless to say it is corroborated by contemporaneous remarks made to friends and family and very specific as to place, access and consistent with Biden’s other odd behavior towards women.
The allegations pose a real challenge to Democrats. The allegations have been picked up by liberal media sourcecs like Vox and on twitter #TimesUpBiden and #IbelieveTaraReade are trending. Perhaps it is mostly supporters of Bernie Sanders spreading the allegations, but for a party that has unanimously attacked Republican politicians and Supreme Court picks for far less credible or substantiated claims, the double standard is palpable. Will Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar all stand silent and continue to back Biden in return for trying to get Biden’s Vice Presidential pick? Elizabeth Warren went after Mayor Bloomberg for his treatment of women and attacked Sanders for saying that he did not think a woman could defeat Trump. Will she break with the establishment and now go after Biden?
We believe that there is a substantial chance that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. His coronvirus performances are so cringeworthy that even many liberal media sources have had enough. Politico’s title this week was “Inside Joe Biden’s bizarre coronavirus bunker.” Likewise, he continues to gain very little enthusiasm. 632 people watched his virtual town hall, much less than the millions turning into Trump’s daily press briefings. If an Elizabeth Warren or another prominent woman were to re-enter the race citing the latest allegations, we think it entirely possible that Biden’s support would collapse. We also think that Gov. Cuomo’s far more hands on approach to the pandemic are highlighing to Democrats that they need a vigorous, more youthful candidate.
Is talk of replacing Biden real? We believe yes. On PredictIt, contracts for Biden being the Democratic nominee have fallen from 87 to 75 over the past week, suggesting there is at least a 25% chance that Biden will not be the nominee. That is pretty remarkable. With most of the Democratic primaries now delayed until June, let’s wait to see if the establishment dam breaks. All we need is one candidate to re-enter the race and we think Biden’s support may evaporate. After all, his support has always been a mirage, a promise to go back to the Obama era, but as Iowa and New Hampshire voters experienced first hand, when you see Biden up close on the campaign, you realize that he is way past his prime.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 