It’s only been a few weeks since the severity of the coronavirus became clear to the nation. Now with most of the country practicing social distancing and millions out of work as the nation’s economy grinds to a halt, it’s difficult to know how the pandemic will play out over the next few weeks, much less the seven months before the Presidential election. Nevertheless, we offer 5 long-term potential implications to watch.
First, by November, most of the pandemic — or at least the peak number of cases and deaths — should be in the rear view mirror. There will be countless Monday quarterbacks saying how the President did during the pandemic. We are not sure how it will play out, but the American people will likely form a consensus. This consensus will likely be the deciding factor as to whether Trump is re-elected in November. If we had to guess, we think that Trump as well as Governors Cuomo and Lamont will emerge ok as the public seems to be giving them the benefit of the doubt for effort.
Second, American politics will become increasingly isolationist. With the trillions now spent on fiscal stimulus to combat coronavirus, the willingness to fund foreign wars and adventures will wane. Do we really need to have thousands of troops in the Middle East? in Afghanistan? in Europe? in Japan? We believe that a bipartisan consensus will emerge to bring the troops home.
Third, we believe that Americans of both parties will become more mercantilist on trade. Gone will be the days when both parties agreed to increasing trade with China. Rather, both parties will want to ensure that key pharmaceuticals, food, medical supplies, and manufacturing is conducted within the boundaries of the United States. Look for higher tariffs.
Fourth, we believe that views on immigration will change decidedly in favor of those arguing for a strong national border. Even in Europe, borders are re-emerging. If Rhode Island can enforce its borders, the United States should certainly have a functioning border with Mexico. Coronavirus has made clear that nations must be able to secure their borders. To argue otherwise (such as by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) will become political suicide.
Finally, we think voting this November will be increasingly done by early voting or vote by mail. We would not be surprised if turnout was considerably less than in 2016 as many voters decide to forego going to the polls. Moreover, campaign activity — rallies, door-to-door campaigns — will be way down. We also would not be surprised if both national conventions were held virtually or in abridged fashion. We think the impact of this smaller electorate will likely favor Trump, but that is again mostly conjecture.
For now, stay safe as we wait this pandemic out.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 