While the pandemic certainly injects an unpredictable element into politics, we thought that we would canvass the various projections for the 2020 Presidential race by many of the leading political prognosticators. Currently, most political models suggest that Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. Let’s take a look.
We’ll start with University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato who publishes the well-regarded Crystal Ball. Sabato has 248 electoral votes for Biden and 233 for Trump with 4 states as toss-ups: Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It is worth noting that all four of these states went for Trump in 2016. Sabato has Michigan, which Trump won, as leaning Democratic.
Next up is political scientist Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center who predicts that Biden leads 289 to Trump’s 181 electoral votes with 68 as toss up states. Bitecofer has Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all in the Biden camp with Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa as toss ups.
PluralVote provides a percentage forecast as well as a electoral vote. Plural Vote gives Biden a 68% probability of winning and Trump 32%. Plural vote says Biden is likely to win 317 electoral votes and Trump 221 votes. PluralVote says that Biden will win all the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Finally, InsideElections has Biden with 269 electoral votes and Trump at 215. InsideElections says Trump is likely to hang on to a win in Arizona but that Michigan and Pennsylvania are likely to go to Biden. That means Biden would only have to win one on the swing states of Wisconsin, Florida or North Carolina to win, while Trump would have to win all three to earn a tie in the electoral vote.
In short, the political pundits believe that Biden is likely to defeat Trump. The forecasts are largely built on the latest state by state political polls. Indeed, most national and state by state polls suggest that Biden is likely to win. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden up by +5 in the national race versus Trump. Similarly, most swing state polls have Biden beating Trump by a margin of 3 to 7 points. In short, if you believe the polls, Biden is likely to win.
We highlight several points to consider. First, there is an awful lot of time between now and November. A lot could happen. Biden will need to win the remaining Democratic primaries, starting with next Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary. Biden will then need to select a running mate and make peace with the Sanders wing of the party. Trump and Biden will face off in at least two, probably three presidential debates. All of these events will impact the odds and could change voter impressions. Second, we are in the middle of an incredibly uncertain time caused by the coronavirus pandemic which has caused unemployment to spike at the highest rate in American history. Will Trump take the blame for this spike? Or will voters give him credit for fighting the virus? We think if the economy has not recovered by September that Trump will face long odds to win re-election. Third, most of the polls have approximately 5% of the electorate that is undecided. Are these the Sanders voters? or are they NeverTrump Republicans? or are they true Independents? We don’t know and how they break could be decisive. Fourth, the coronavirus may impact voter turnout which could mean that the polls are not accurately capturing the electorate that is likely to turn out on Election Day. Finally, the political polls look very similar to the polls that predicted that Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016. Recall that the New York Times had Hillary as an 85% favorite to win, while Nate Silver of 538 had Clinton a 72% favorite to win and projected that she would win over 300 electoral votes.
Can Trump surprise us again? We’ll have to wait and see, but so far it has not been good to bet against him.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 