As we look to November, we should remember that in 2016 third party candidates played a pivotal role in the election. Indeed, it is likely that President Trump would have won more states had Libertarian Gary Johnson, a one-time Governor of New Mexico, not been running. Johnson won 3-4 % of the vote in many critical battle ground states. Similarly, Green Party candidate Jill Stein undoubtedly cost Hillary Clinton votes in several states while Independent Candidate Evan McMullin pulled predominately from Trump.
Let’s look at a few of the 2016 battleground states. Let’s start with New Hampshire, a state that Hillary Clinton won by less than 3,000 votes. Johnson won over 30,000 votes in New Hampshire while Stein won 6,000. Had Johnson and Stein not been in the race, we believe that Trump would have won New Hampshire. Now let’s look at Michigan, a state that Trump won by 10,000 votes. Johnson won over 173,000 votes in Michigan while Stein won 50,000 and Constitution Party (which is quite conservative) candidate Darrell Castle won almost 17,000. If these voters had to select either Trump or Clinton, we believe Trump would have won by a wider margin. How much? It’s difficult to say, but our best estimate is that Trump would have won by a margin of close to 50,000 in Michigan. Trump also could have flipped Minnesota. Clinton won Minnesota by about 44,000 votes, but Johnson won 113,000 votes, Stein won 53,000 and McMullin won 37,000 votes. Based on our estimate of these votes, Minnesota would have been a virtual dead heat. Bottom line: third party candidates matter in close elections.
So where do we stand in 2020? First, let’s look at the Libertarian Party which tends to appeal (although not universally) to more Republican leaning voters. The Libertarian Party is scheduled to select its Presidential Candidate on May 21-25 at a convention in Austin, Texas. Somehow despite Covid-19, we predict that the Libertarians will go ahead with their convention! So far, the leading candidate is Jacob Hornberger from Virginia. The Libertarians have held several non-binding presidential primaries and Hornberger has won the most votes (approximately 20%). Hornberger is a former trial lawyer who founded the Future of Freedom Foundation, a libertarian think tank. A fried of Ron Paul, Hornberger is a well-spoken candidate but one who lacks the name appeal of Johnson. Other potential candidates are software engineer John McAfee, activist Vermin Supreme (currently in second place in the primaries with 10%), former Coast Guard officer Ken Armstrong (in third place with 8%), and anti-war activist Adam Kokesh (in fourth place with 6%). We think Hornberger is the likely candidate but Libertarians are unpredictable, so we will be watching the convention closely to see which candidate emerges.
On the Green Party side, the national convention will take place in Detroit, Michigan on July 9-12. There are about five candidates actively seeking the nomination. The leader so far is Howie Hawkins, a long-time socialist/green party member, from New York. In second place is Dario Hunter, a progressive from Ohio. In Green Party primaries, Hawkins has the early lead having won California, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina while Hunter has won Minnesota and Massachusetts. It will be interesting to see which candidate emerges victorious, but we think both will appeal to disenfranchised Sanders supporters, looking for a candidate who will enthusiastically back the Green New Deal. We believe Hawkins is the favorite.
Should Hornberger and Hawkins win their respective nominations, we believe that the support for the Libertarians will probably fall from 2016 by more than 50% while Green Party support will likely remain close to 2016 levels. We also doubt that Independent candidates such as McMullin will be as successful or that the Constitution Party fares that well. The Third Party candidates will bear watching, but for now, we believe that they will not play as important as role as in 2016, which on balance we think helps Trump.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 