There is an old adage reputedly first said by PT Barnum that goes “There’s no such thing as bad publicity.” We are about to find out if this holds true for politics. When it comes to press coverage – mostly bad, occasionally good – President Trump is dominating his rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.
Axios recently came out with a study that measured how often the candidates were mentioned over a 30 day period ending April 15th. The results are startling: Trump is mentioned 3x more than Biden on cable television, 7x more on articles published online, 15x more on social media following (Facebook, Instagram and Twitter), and 7x more on the Google Search Index. In short, Trump is dominating the news coverage. Of course, much of the coverage from the likes of CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, ABC and the Washington Post is universally negative. Even the YouTube filters now promote negative stories of Trump, banishing more conservative videos.
What will this mean for the election? It’s up for debate. On the one hand, everyone knows what Trump is doing. Love him, hate him, tolerate him, or ignore him … it’s your choice, but Trump is visible and has a unique ability to generate news and command attention. In contrast, Biden seems to intentionally be self-isolating, both literally and mentally. He has confined himself to his home in Delaware where he gives an occasional TV interview, usually with his wife by his side and with prepared notes, and does heavily scripted videos with supportive Democrats. Trump has branded Biden as “Sleepy Joe” and Biden seems to be doing his best to living up to this nickname. Biden’s disappearing act has some Democratic consultants nervous and has prompted Biden aides to lobby Obama to become more active in the campaign. Obama as well as Michelle Obama are reportedly in negotiations with Biden on how much they will help him in return for having greater influence on key appointees in a Biden administration.
If the November election is about mobilizing the base, Trump’s domination of the media overage may give him the advantage. If, however, America wants to return to the politics and style of the Obama administration and is tired of the Trump era, Biden will have the edge. The Democrats could have nominated a progressive visionary, but in selecting Biden, they have decided to play it safe with an aging figure, betting that not being Trump will be enough to win this November. It may work, but we always think people like to vote for something, rather than simply against. Accordingly, we believe Trump remains a modest favorite to win re-election, notwithstanding the coronavirus.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 