Polling USA is out today with their latest projection and give Biden an 89.6% chance of winning. They predict that Biden will win 363 electoral votes to Trump’s 175. Emerson Polling is out with another poll that has Trump’s approval rate at 41% and have Biden leading Trump by 6% in a head-to-head match up. Another state poll out today by Survey USA has Biden leading North Carolina by +5% and the most recent Fox Poll has Biden leading by +3% in Florida. In short, all the political polling is showing Biden with a considerable edge. Yet, when you look at the betting markets, the picture looks quite different. PredictIt, our favorite market, gives Trump a 49% chance of winning, a virtual dead heat.
We believe that the betting markets, rather than the polls, have this right. Here’s why:
First, Trump has lost 5% approval since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. We believe this is directly attributable to the lockdown and growing unemployment. As the economy re-opens, the jobs will start coming back. Indeed, by the Fall, it is likely we will be in a stronger economic recovery. While it will not yet be back to the levels of this winter, the economy will be on the upswing, the coronavirus in the rear view mirror. That is why Democrats are desperate to prolong the lockdown, forbid students from returning to schools, and keep the country sidelined for as long as possible. They don’t want the economy to be back. We think a rising economy will give Trump a 3-5% boost.
Second, enthusiasm for Biden is very low. The Emerson Poll had Biden leading by 6%, but it also showed a disturbing lack of enthusiasm for Biden. Only 46% of Biden supporters are enthusiastic supporters. A remarkable 54% are either “mildly excited” or “not that excited” to vote for Biden. That is very low. In contrast, Trump’s support is robust. 64% of Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic. Only 15% are “not that excited.” The enthusiasm gap will show up in turnout and suggest that the polls are oversampling Biden supporters.
Third, Biden has a real problem with the latest sexual assault allegations from Tara Reade. Now that there are at least five contemporaneous corroborations of the assault from Democrats, there is an awkward silence among social justice warriors. How can they vote for Biden when they have attacked Republicans on far less evidence repeatedly. The double standard is obvious to all and will further depress support for Biden among women and independents. Note that the Emerson Poll was taken before the latest corroborating witnesses stepped forward.
Fourth, Biden is in trouble on China. The big loser with coronavirus is China. There is now bipartisan opposition to China. Biden has been linked to China for decades. He attacked Trump for the original travel ban on China calling it xenophobic and is on tape praising the Chinese government. Biden personifies the globalist elite foreign policy that for decades has embraced the loss of jobs and technology to China. We think that the pandemic highlights the need to bring our supply chain home to America. This issue will favor Trump, not Biden.
Finally, we remind readers that Biden is going to have to debate Trump at least twice, possibly three times. Biden is increasingly gaffe prone, has trouble completing sentences, and relies on notes to prop him up during short interviews with friendly reporters from his basement. Democrats will try to keep him hidden, away from reporters and voters, but it’s difficult to keep a Presidential candidate hidden during the middle of a campaign. We believe that the debates will make the choice clear and give Trump the advantage.
Elections are challenging to predict, so we won’t make the mistakes that Democrats made in 2016 about being overconfident. Nor do we underestimate the damage that the coronavirus pandemic and resulting high unemployment has done to Trump’s re-election hopes. Still, we think that Biden has the greater headwinds which makes Trump the favorite.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 