With the COVID-19 pandemic still grabbing most of the the headlines, we highlight that two relatively high profile politicians have indicated that they are likely to run for President this November. On the Libertarian side, Michigan congressman Justin Amash announced that he has registered as a Libertarian and formed an exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian nomination for President. Amash, a former Republican, who left the party given his opposition to President Donald Trump’s nationalistic approach, has long been a strong advocate for less government.
It is by no means certain that Amash can win the Libertarian nomination. Amash will have to win over the crowd of delegates at the Libertarian national convention, currently still scheduled for late May in Austin, Texas, and defeat Jacob Hornberger, the leading current candidate for the nomination. We think that Amash as a sitting Congressman would bring greater attention to the Libertarian Party and is probably now the favorite to represent the party. Less clear is whether Amash’s candidacy would favor Biden or Trump. Ideologically, there is little overlap between Amash and Biden, which suggests that perhaps Amash may take more votes from Trump. However, we think Amash actually may pull more votes from Biden. We think that most Amash voters are either true believer Libertarians or Never Trump Republicans that will not vote for Trump under any circumstance.
The second potential candidate to express a desire to run for President is former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, the ex-professional wrestler. Ventura surprised the political world by indicating that he was “testing the waters” for a run for the Green Party nomination. It’s not clear that Ventura is really a true Green Party progressive, but he certainly is better known than the leading Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. Hawkins has deep roots within far left progressive politics and has won 12 of 15 Green primaries so far. A strong Green candidate could certainly pull from former Sanders supporters, hurting Biden’s chances of winning.
We’ll be watching both the Libertarian and Green Party nominating processes very closely. If you look back at the elections of 1992 (Ross Perot), 2000 (Ralph Nader, Green) and 2016 (Gary Johnson, Libertarian; Jill Stein, Green), third party candidates can have a significant effect on the outcome of a race. So far, none of the political polls have tested how much of the electorate might support a Green or Libertarian candidate. Our sense is that Trump’s base is much more supportive than the Democratic Party is of Joe Biden, given his low levels of enthusiasm even among supporters. Thus, we believe that strong third party candidacies are more likely to boost Trump’s re-election chances.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 