We believe that Joe Biden is facing his first big decision of his campaign: who should be his Vice President. It’s always an important choice for a Presidential candidate, but we think it is especially important in 2020 for Biden for three reasons. First, if he wins, Biden would be 78 years old when he takes the oath of office in January 2021, 82 if he were to win a second term. Given his age and the challenges of being President, it’s very important to have a Vice Presidential candidate that would be highly regarded and viewed as ready to take over should he have health issues or need to step aside. Second, Biden would benefit from a VP candidate who is energetic and can take on much of the rigor of campaigning. Third, and perhaps more interesting, Biden’s choice will tell us a lot about his strategy to win the Presidency.
We see two different paths for Biden to win the White House. Path number one is to appeal to the middle and try to win over the suburban white voters and improve the showing in the mid-west where Hillary Clinton underperformed in 2016. Path number two is to unify the party by appealing to the more progressive wing. The goal here would be to pick a progressive VP who will carry the torch to the future once Biden steps aside potentially in 2024. This could excite the Sanders voters, many of whom in 2016 did not vote or cast their vote for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate.
If Biden decides to go with path number one, we think he will select either Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) or Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). Both are mid-western women who have won in key states (Michigan and Minnesota) by wide margins. We think Klobuchar remains the preferred choice for this strategy as she has already been subject to considerable media scrutiny and seemed to have good chemistry with Biden when she endorsed him. Path number two would be to select a clear progressive such as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) or Stacy Abrams (D-GA). The ideal choice would be a candidate who could appeal to suburban voters and the middle while also exciting the progressive wing. That is how supporters of Senator Kamala Harris are trying to position her.
The betting markets have Harris as the favorite followed by Klobuchar, Warren, Whitmer, Abrams, and then Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). We continue to believe that Biden would be better off going with path number one and selecting Klobuchar. Sure, progressives will be disappointed, but Klobuchar is liberal enough and progressives will not have any choice but to support Biden-Klobuchar against Trump. Additionally, Biden only has to do slightly better than Clinton to win several of the mid-Western states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. We think that is a much easier path for Biden to win the White House. We see considerable downside if Biden selects path number two and goes with Warren, Abrams or even Harris. We don’t think these candidates would help win suburban independents and culturally conservative Democrats and doubt that the progressive wing is going to turn out in mass for Biden, regardless of who the VP candidate is. In short, we think the excite-the-base strategy (and potentially lose the middle) is a much riskier proposition then winning back the Mid-West.
So watch closely who Biden selects. If its Klobuchar or Whitmer, we think its clear that the strategy will be to win the White House by winning over the mid-West. We also think that Biden has telegraphed that he is not likely to select a minority female because when he announced that he would be selecting a female for Vice President, he indicated that he would select a black female nominee for the next Supreme Court opening. Finally, we believe that Biden is not a huge risk taker and going with a Warren or Abrams just does not seem to us to be consistent with Biden’s comfort zone. Accordingly, we believe that Klobuchar remains the odds on favorite to be Biden’s Vice President with Whitmer as the runner-up. At the same time, we think Biden will assemble a list of very progressive potential judicial nominees as a bridge to the progressive wing.
We believe that a Biden-Klobuchar ticket would give Biden his best chance of winning the White House.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 