On Friday morning when speaking with media personality and host Charlamagne tha God, aka Lenard Larry McKelvey, former Vice President Joe Biden said that, “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” The damaging comment came shortly after an aide had interrupted Biden to tell him that it was time to go. Later in the day, Biden tried to walk the remarks back saying that he regretted being “cavalier” in his remarks. However, for anyone that has watched the exchange, you will see that Biden had a huge smile on his face when saying this and seemed to be quite pleased with his remarks.
The Trump campaign immediately jumped on Biden’s remarks, highlighting his past support for various crime bills that have led to mass incarceration of black Americans. On the ad, Biden says that “We do everything but hang people for jaywalking in this bill.” Trump also flew to Detroit where he met with black community leaders.
We see three primary ramifications of the latest Biden gaffe:
- First, we believe that the likelihood of Biden selecting a black female for his Vice President has increased dramatically. Biden desperately needs a strong turnout from the black community to beat Trump. The difference between the 2012 Obama victory and the 2016 Hillary defeat was in part due to tepid turnout among black voters, particularly young black voters. Until now, Biden had been signaling that he was confident in his support among the black community and was likely to pick Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. However, with the latest gaffe, Biden may feel obliged to select a black female as his running mate. On PredictIt, Klobuchar’s chances of being selected dropped from close to 30% to 20% over night. Senator Kamala Harris is the top pick now at 34% with Congresswoman Val Demmings (D-FL 10th congressional seat) at 10%. Stacey Abrams, the former unsuccessful Georgia gubernatorial candidate, is at 6%. We believe that neither Demmings or Abrams would be a good choice for VP given their obscurity and lack of experience. We continue to believe Klobuchar would be the best pick, but with Biden now worried about his support in the black community, we think he is likely to turn to Harris.
- Second, we believe that Biden’s public appearances will become largely scripted. Biden’s poll numbers have been quite strong up until now, leading Trump by 5-6% in most national polls, notwithstanding that Biden has largely been confined to his basement. Biden has been giving short, controlled interviews to friendly media interviews. The two problematic interviews that he has had were with Mika on MSNBC when discussing the Tara Reade sexual assault allegations and now with Charlamagne tha God. Both the Tara Reade and this interview were meetings where Biden did not have notes and was forced to answer questions that he had not been given in advance. Look for Biden’s handlers to increasingly restrict his appearances and keep him in settings where he can increasingly rely on notes or teleprompters. Another tactic the Biden camp will use is to pair Biden with his wife Jill so that she can answer more challenging questions. Biden has a history of campaign gaffes and misstatements. Indeed, his 1988 campaign for the President was derailed by false statements about his academic record and plagiarism of speeches. It will be interesting if Biden tries to avoid debating Trump, using the coronavirus as an excuse not to debate.
- Third, Trump is going to make a good faith effort to win the black vote. It is extremely unlikely that Trump will win a large share of the black vote, but if he can increase his share of the black vote from the single digits to the mid-teens, he will significantly undercut Biden’s chances of carrying states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of which have big cities such as Detroit, Philadelphia, and Miami where turnout among black Americans will be critical. Trump’s criminal justice reform initiatives and public support from prominent black Americans such as Kanye West and Herschel Walker give him a fighting chance to expand his support. Democrats will need to take this seriously and campaign accordingly.
Biden’s misstatement is a setback, but we don’t think it is fatal for him given widespread Democratic opposition to Trump. However, Biden is going to have to improve his verbal game if he wants to win in November.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 