The 2020 campaign continues to be quite unpredictable. We think it’s too early to make any confident projections for November given the pace of change and developments. Here are a few key developments.
- The death of George Floyd after being subdued by police for a non-violent crime and the ensuing riots in Minneapolis has ended the possibility that Biden would select Amy Klobuchar as the Democratic VP nominee. Klobuchar failed to prosecute the policeman who caused Floyd’s death after another incident of alleged police brutality while she was the Minnesota district attorney. We believe that it is inconceivable now that Biden will select Klobuchar.
- Second, the riots in Minnesota are out of control and threatening to turn parts of Minneapolis and St. Paul into Ferguson or Baltimore. The Democratic Governor and Mayors have not been able to maintain order or to quell riots and looting. How this plays electorally in the state of Minnesota and the rest of the country is uncertain, but we could see the inner city vote being disillusioned about the Democratic Party and not turning out in November.
- Third, Biden indicated that he might not announce his VP selection until August 1. That is later than we would have expected. We think Biden would benefit from having a nominee who is more energetic and visible, relative to Biden who remains largely secluded.
- Fourth, Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masta withdrew from consideration as Biden’s VP. We never thought Masta was a front runner. According to PredictIt, Senator Kamala Harris is the favorite now, with Elizabeth Warren and Val Demings as the next two most likely. We think the nominee will be Harris.
- Latest polls continue to show Biden leading Trump. The latest national polls show Biden ahead, but the margin appears quite similar to the levels from 2016 when Hillary also was leading. The Economist/ YouGov poll out yesterday has Biden leading 45% to 42%. We note that a higher proportion of black and hispanic voters are undecided (11% of hispanic, 10% of black, and 5% of white voters. We also note that Independents favor Trump slightly which if confirmed, will require Democratic voters to turn out in force if Biden wants to win.
- Finally, we believe that the Durham / Unmasking investigations are likely to be completed soon this summer and could impact the election.
Our conclusion: this election remains fluid and should be considered a toss-up at this point.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 