Senate Dem Primaries to Watch

There are a number of interesting Democratic Senate primaries to watch. Tonight, we highlight three: Massachusetts, Kentucky and Colorado.

In Massachusetts, the incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey is facing a rare primary challenge from a congressman from his own party. Representative Joe Kennedy, aged 39 years old and grandson of Robert Kennedy, announced that he was challenging the 73 year old incumbent. Politically, both Markey and Kennedy are traditional Democratic liberal leaning politicians who agree on almost every issue. Kennedy has tried to attack Markey as spending most of his time down in the DC suburbs rather than being present in the state. We believe that Kennedy has the edge. Recent polls have been inconsistent: a poll by UMass had Kennedy leading +2% while an Emerson poll has Kennedy leading by +16%. The primary is on September 1 and turnout in these special elections will be crucial. Whoever wins will likely easily win in the general election against the Republican opponent, likely either the controversial Shiva Ayyadurai or Kevin O’Connor, a Boston attorney. We believe that should Kennedy win, it could position him to be a presidential candidate in 2028 or 2032.

In Kentucky, Democrats have been focused on defeating Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and have been running polls showing that Democrat Amy McGrath, a former Army pilot, was in striking distance of pulling an upset. However, McGrath, who has raised millions of dollars and has $19 million of cash on hand, may have been looking too far ahead. She first has to win the Democratic primary and is facing a first term Democratic state representative Charles Booker. Booker has been a visible leader in the ongoing protests around the death of Breonna Taylor, an unarmed black woman killed by police. A few months ago, McGrath was leading by nearly 50% in the primary but a poll released this week had Booker up by 10%. We think this is a toss up and will be interested to see who turns out on June 23. The suburban, moderate vote will favor McGrath, but that the young, urban and more progressive vote favors Booker. Senator Elizabeth Warren reversed course and suddenly switched her endorsement to Booker. We think this Democratic fighting helps McConnell who should be re-elected in November.

Finally, we turn to Colorado. Colorado is perhaps one of the Democrats best chances of gaining a seat as the state has moved steadily to the left. The Democrats recruited former two term Governor John Hickenlooper and polls have Hickenlooper beating incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner by 13%. Gardner won in 2014 by a narrow 2% margin during a Republican wave election. However, Hickenlooper is facing a primary challenge on June 30th from former Colorado state representative leader Andrew Romanoff. Hickenlooper has been hit by some ethics charges and has been deemed insensitive by some to recent protests. Romanoff has tacked to the left, embracing the Green New Deal. Suddenly, Hickenlooper seems vulnerable. We believe that the challenging Democratic primary gives Gardner a better chance of retaining his seat in the Fall. Democrats should win this seat, but a divided party could open the door for Gardner to survive.