It’s been weeks since Trump had any positive news out of polling, but suddenly in the past week, several state polls suggest that Trump may have a better chance in key battleground states than previously thought.
Let’s start first with North Carolina. This week the pollster Gravis released a poll of 631 registered voters which gave Trump a 3% margin over Biden in North Carolina. Trump beat Clinton by 3% in 2016 in North Carolina so this would suggest a very similar election environment. Trump had trailed Biden in the previous two polls in North Carolina.
Then in Michigan, the pollster Trafalager Group released a poll of registered voters in Michigan which had Biden leading Trump by 1% with 4% undecided This was consistent with another poll released by CNBC that showed Biden up by 2%. Both of these two recent polls were considerably better for Trump than polls two weeks ago that had Biden up by double digits.
Finally, Trump’s approval ratings have recovered slightly. Rasmussen has a daily approval rating for Trump which is up ~3% over the past week, close to the long term levels for Trump which have typically been in the mid to high 40% range.
In sum, the recent national polling continues to favor Biden, but Trump should take heart from the polls out of states like North Carolina and Michigan. If Trump can outperform the polls due to the enthusiasm of his supporters, the 2020 election may prove to be a lot closer than forecast.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 