June 23 Election Results

Voters headed to the polls in New York, Kentucky and South Carolina, putting aside their fears of COVID-19 to exercise their constitutional right to vote. Here are some of the more interesting results:

• Kentucky Presidential Primary – no surprise here, but both Biden and Trump won the KY Presidential primaries. However, Trump’s results seem much stronger than Biden’s. With 48% reporting, Trump is winning 94% of the Republican vote while Biden, despite being the prohibitive favorite, only won 56% of the Democratic vote. Also, the Republican turnout seems to be considerably higher than the Democratic turnout, notwithstanding the more interesting Democratic senate race.
• Kentucky Senate Primary – as we write, it’s too close to call between Amy McGrath and Charles Booker, although the early vote seems to be favoring McGrath. We probably won’t know for a little while given the widespread mail-in vote. Either way, it seems that the Democratic party progressive v. moderate narrative threatens to spilt the party in many elections. We think the internal fighting helps McConnell in the Fall.
• New York Congressional District 12, 15 and 16 – Alexandra Ocasio Cortez has won her party’s nomination in convincing fashion over a more conventional challenger. The NY Democratic Party seems to be moving to the left. In the 16th district which covers portions of the Bronx and Westchester, Jamaal Bowman is leading in the early vote over long term congressman Eliot Engle. A win by Bowman would be a huge win for the progressive wing. Bowman had been endorsed by AOC. His win (if it holds up) will put pressure for many Democrats to move further to the left, embracing truly radical ideas. Finally, NY city councilman and gay advocate Richie Torres appears headed to win a tightly contested race in the 15th district. In short, in all three races, the progressive candidates appear to have triumphed. This will considerably strengthen AOC’s power in the Democratic Party.
• New York Congressional Special Election Seat 27 (Buffalo area) – with just a handful of votes in, the Republican Chris Jacobs appears poised to win the seat vacated by a Republican who had resigned over ethical issues. This is a solid win for Republicans in a race that could have been an opening for Democrats. Jacobs is outpolling his predecessor … a good sign for Republicans who have now won several special elections.
• South Carolina Special Election Primary for Congress – With Mark Meadows joining the White House team, Republicans held a primary to elect their nominee for the Fall. In a stunning result, 24 year old Madison Cawthorn defeated the highly favored Lynda Bennett. Cawthorn, who turns 25 just in time to be eligible to serve in Congress, is paralyzed from the waist down and is a conservative motivational speaker. We believe that he bears watching as a future Republican star.

In short, the night seems to signal real strength for Progressives in New York, turnout strength for Republicans in the special election in Upstate New York and the Kentucky Presidential primary, and the rise of a new young star in the Republican party.