Earlier this week, UVA’s Center of Politics led by Larry Sabato posted an article that suggested that “a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show rallies having a significant impact on that election’s results.” The article had a fascinating chart that showed how many rallies Trump and Clinton had held in certain states and made the case that there did not seem to be a high correlation between the number of rallies and the outcome.
We reach very different conclusions. The most remarkable observation is how Trump out worked Clinton. Trump made 118 campaign rallies in the battleground states compared to Clinton’s 81 rallies. That is a huge difference, particularly when you realize that the Trump rallies were often 2x to 3x the size of Clinton’s. The benefit of rallies also goes beyond the attendees because it also generates news, TV viewers, and conviction among voters. In short, we believe that Trump’s rallies propelled him to victory.
In 2020, Trump is wisely re-starting his campaign. He kicked off the re-start with the controversial rally in Tulsa which the media lampooned as a failure because the event was attended by “only” 6000 attendees, less than the capacity of 19,000. This criticism misses the fact that almost 11 million viewers watched the rally on TV, an almost unprecedented viewership for a rally. Trump then had a rally in Arizona with students who packed a church with close to 6000 people. Finally, today, Trump appeared at a Town Hall in Wisconsin with a live audience. In contrast, Biden remains hunkered down, rarely leaving his basement and only making highly sheltered events.
Republicans seem committed to have an in-person, traditional nominating convention. In contrast, Democrats have confirmed that they plan to have a largely virtual convention with Biden making a physical appearance with a small number of in person attendees. The Democrats are betting that their approach will be viewed as safer and that Republicans will look reckless.
So what will the impact be on the race? We think that Biden could pay a price if he remains largely hidden while Trump dominates the airwaves with his rallies and campaigning. We doubt that Biden will be able to duck the in-person debates, but predict that his campaign will try to minimize the number of debates and change the format so that Biden can rely on notes. If we are right, Trump’s ratings should improve as he re-engages with the American public. Will it be enough? It’s uncertain, but we believe Trump’s greater in person rallies and public appearances will tighten the race.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 