In 2016, it appeared that Hillary Clinton was well on her way to defeating Donald Trump. On June 28, 2016 exactly 4 years ago, Clinton led Trump by 5.6% in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Today, Biden leads Trump by 9.2% according to Real Clear Politics, a considerably wider margin. As we look back at 2016, however, there are a number of other observations that are relevant for today.
First, between July and November in 2016, Clinton always led in the polls. However, Trump closed the gap slightly. By election day, the RCP average had narrowed from Clinton +6% to Clinton +3%. If Trump wants to defeat Biden, he will have to do the same in 2020. We expect the polls to tighten somewhat, but Trump will probably need to be within 2-3% on election eve if he wants to win.
Second, in 2016, there were 3 Clinton-Trump debates held in mid September, early October and mid October. The mainstream media thought that Clinton had won the debates, but results suggested otherwise. This year, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, the candidates are likely to debate without a crowd in attendance or possibly with a much smaller crowd. Trump appears to be relishing a debate with Biden, who has been running a low profile campaign out of his basement. The debates appear to be Trump’s best chance of closing the gap. We would not be surprised if the Biden camp tries to reduce the number of debates or even decline to participate in the debates, but we think that would be a somewhat risky strategy.
Third, when selecting a running mate, Clinton selected Senator Tim Kaine, about as mainstream a Democrat as you could select. Her strategy was to play it safe. Kaine was not a liability, but he also was not a strength. In contrast, Trump selected Governor Mike Pence, an evangelical Christian, who reassured many socially conservative voters that Trump would govern as a conservative. Evangelical votes carried Trump to victory in 2016, making Pence probably the most consequential pick in decades. Who will Biden choose as his running mate? He’s already promised it will be a woman, but now seems to be forced by circumstances to select a diverse female candidate. We had suggested that he select Senator Amy Klobuchar, but given the George Floyd death in Minneapolis, her candidacy would be problematic. Thus, it’s likely to be Senator Kamala Harris or former National Security Advisor Susan Rice. We don’t think either of these selections are that strong. Maybe they will reassure diverse voters, but they could also turn off moderate voters. Neither has a proven track record as a national politician.
Fourth, turnout in 2016 surprised pollsters, particularly among white high school graduates, who turned out in greater numbers than had been forecast. This year, with many voters concerned about coronavirus, it will be interesting to see what the composition of the electorate looks like. There is some evidence to suggest that voting registration is down because of COVID-19, so it certainly is possible that we could see lower political participation this year. We think that could help Trump given the higher enthusiasm among his supporters.
A lot can happen in politics over four months, but Trump is going to need some positive developments in the 2020 election if he wants to reverse the Biden lead. We see the debates, a poor Biden VP selection, an unexpected Biden gaffe, and a lower than usual turnout amid COVID-19 as the most likely items that could tighten the race and give Trump a chance of repeating history.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 