Friday’s Jobs Report brought welcome news to the nation and President Trump. The economy added 4.8 million jobs in June and the nation’s unemployment rate fell 2.2% to 11.1%. That’s still much too high, but at least its a step in the right direction. The report came as a shock to many of the political and economic pundits. MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow had warned that the jobs report would be terrible. CNBC’s Jim Kramer was equally stunned, saying “There’s an optimism in the country that I think often is not shared with people who are on air, and that’s only because we don’t see the hiring. But people are hiring. Frankly, I found it astonishing versus what we hear.”
From a political perspective, the jobs report gives much needed hope to Trump. Pre-COVID-19, Trump was going to make the strong economy as the centerpiece of his campaign. Now, Trump is championing the re-opening of the economy while Biden has embraced the lockdown, calling for a national mandatory mask policy and continued shuttering of much of the economy. If the economy continues to rebound and generate more jobs, Trump’s re-election chances will likely rise. In contrast, Democrats are hoping that the rise of COVID-19 cases in much of the South and West will curtail the recovery and sink Trump.
On Friday, Rasmussen Reports released its daily tracking polling for Trump. Trump’s Friday polling shows his approval has risen from 42% on June 29 to 47% on July 3rd. We think the stronger than expected jobs report and economic data may have boosted his numbers and shows how quickly he could regain ground against Biden. Biden is leading at this point in the race, but his support is lukewarm and lacks enthusiasm. Biden also has to navigate the selection of his Vice President and seems to be struggling to reach a decision. Indeed, Biden pushed back the announcement date for the VP. Senator Kamala Harris remains the favorite, but it’s not clear that Harris would help Biden.
Now, on July 4th weekend, we are left with a visible contrast. President Trump is speaking at Mount Rushmore in South Dakota in front of a large audience. In contrast, Biden remains largely hidden, appearing only in front of hand picked audiences and friendly media anchors. Biden has also pledged not to hold rallies due to COVID-19. The mainstream media believes that this low profile campaign is brilliant and that Biden just needs to run out the clock. However, if the economy continues to come back, we’re not sure that Biden’s “lockdown” campaign is guaranteed to win in November.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 