With polls suggesting that Biden is likely to defeat Trump, we thought we would look at party registration trends in three battle ground stakes and compare them to 2016 to see what we can learn. The overall picture seems somewhat mixed and suggests that 2020 will be similar to 2016. Here is what we found:
- In New Hampshire, Democrats have gained in party registration, but when you look more closely at the numbers, it looks less impressive. First, the numbers, in 2016 there were 288,808 Democrats registered and 308,808 Republicans with nearly 409,000 Independents. Fast forward to the most recent 2020 numbers and we have 323,430 Democrats and 301,720 Republicans. Democrats have gained 34,622 while Republicans have lost 7,088 registrants. However, the entire Democrat advantage can be explained by the primary in February. New Hampshire allows Independents to switch party the day of the primary if they want to vote in the Presidential primaries. Democrats saw a 47,045 increase between February and April of this year while Republicans only saw a 13,256 increase. However, the Republican primary was not competitive while the Democratic primary was competitive. Interestingly, in 2016, Democrats saw an increase of 52,006, larger than in 2020. Republicans saw an increase of 43,758 in 2016, much higher than in 2020. However, in 2020 the primary was very competitive. So we believe that the party registration numbers in New Hampshire favor Democrats slightly, but when you factor in the fact that Republicans did not have a competitive primary, the gain seems much less impressive. In fact, we think the numbers suggest a highly competitive race.
- Pennsylvania is another key battleground state. Here the numbers look more favorable to Republicans. First, the overall registration in Pennsylvania is down by 123,683, but Democratic registration has declined by 124,763 while Republicans are down by only 10,238. The number of independents is up by 11,318. Democrats still have a considerably advantage but the numbers are getting closer. Thus, the Democratic advantage is down from 48.3% to 47.6% while the percentage of Republicans has risen from 37.8% to 38.3% and Independents from 13.8% to 14.1%. Relative to 2016, Republican party registration has improved relative to Democrats.
- Finally, Florida is perhaps the ultimate battleground state. In contrast to Pennsylvania, Florida’s registration numbers are up by 772,698, but the numbers favor the Republicans, not the Democrats. Republican registration is up by 275,839 while Democratic registration is up by 222,215. Thus, the Republicans have gained about 50,000 more voters than Democrats in Florida. That advantage could be critical in November.
To sum up, as we look at some of the key battleground states, party registration numbers suggest that the 2020 election will look quite close to 2016. Contrary to conventional wisdow, there has been no large shift towards the Democratic Party since President Trump was elected. In fact, our findings suggest that at least in key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire, the party registration has been fairly consistent with Republicans gaining more in Florida and Pennsylvania while Democrats have edged ahead in New Hampshire. However, in New Hampshire, the gain is entirely explained by the primary system and the fact that only Democrats had a competitive primary. Bottom line: party registration suggests that 2020 will be a highly competitive election.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 