President Trump has lately been speaking about a “silent majority.” Asked at the White House about polls showing Biden winning easily in November, Trump said that there was a “silent majority like you have never seen before.” Most pollsters dismiss such talk as foolishness and say that Biden is on his way to a landslide win. We believe that it’s dangerous to dismiss the polls as usually polling error is within a few percentage points based largely on turnout. However, we thought it might be helpful to review the evidence for the Trump silent majority.
First, the 2016 election was one that Trump won despite polls showing that he was comfortably losing by 3-4% percentage points. All of the major political pundits from Larry Sabato to Nate Silver had predicted an easy Hillary Clinton win over Trump, whom they viewed as fatally flawed. The problem with this argument in 2020 is that the margin of the Biden lead is considerably greater, closer to 8-10% in many recent polls, which is more than enough to overcome a 3-4% polling error.
Second, it’s possible that Trump supporters are even more hesitant to publicly voice their support for Trump than they were in 2016. We think this is a real phenomenon. If you voice support for Trump at a major corporation or an academic environment, you are immediately shunned and will suffer serious damage to your career. Most Trump supporters have learned that it is not ok to publicly support Trump (or to say you are pro-life or pro-traditional marriage). In the eyes of liberals, saying you support Trump is synonymous with being a racist. Americans no longer have the ability to voice their own opinions without fear of retribution. Witness the recent backlash against Goya’s CEO who had the audacity to say some kind words about the President, just as he had a few years earlier with First Lady Michelle Obama. To think that this intimidation is not real is simply not to acknowledge reality. We think it’s particularly likely that professionals as well as conservative minorities may not want to share who they are willing to vote for with an anonymous pollster. Still, it’s difficult to extrapolate from this observation that polls are systematically under counting Trump voters. Historically, the so-called “silent” or “quiet” voter in most elections has been a few small percentage points, not as many as 8-10%. Then again, we have never seen this level of hostility towards any previous President’s supporters.
Third, Republicans have actually fared reasonably well in recent elections, whether the turnout in Presidential primaries or the special House elections. We’ve highlighted on these pages that Republicans have actually won the last three House special elections (#NY27, #CA25, and #WI7). Recall that in California’s 25th congressional district, the Republican candidate won by 12% despite the final poll showing his opponent leading by 2%. We saw similar, although not as dramatic, variances between polls and results in New York’s 27th district and Wisconsin’s 7th district. Likewise, turnout in Republican primaries for a year without a competitive race has been much higher than may have been predicted, while turnout on the Democratic side has been lukewarm.
Fourth, polls have consistently shown that Republican enthusiasm for Trump is much higher than Democratic enthusiasm for Biden. That said, there is considerable negative enthusiasm among Democrats against Trump. Biden has worked hard to gain support among the Progressive wing and has co-opted almost all the key demands from the Sanders-AOC voters. The key for Biden will be whether he can keep turnout among Progressives strong while not alienating suburban voters increasingly concerned about the rising crime rates in our cities and rise of socialism.
It’s impossible to prove one way or the other about the extent of the silent Trump voters. Our best guess is that it’s possible that Trump could poll 3-4% better than many mainstream pollsters believe, but we doubt that the silent Trump voter can overcome a 8-10% deficit. Then again, we were amazed by the results of 2016.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 