It was revealed today that Democrats are planning a largely virtual 2020 national convention that will feature a handful of live speeches with as few as 300 actual attendees. Biden will make a prime time address and it was revealed that former Republican John Kasich may also endorse Biden. The theme of the convention appears to be focused on combatting COVID-19, as the Democrats demonstrate how to wear masks, practice extreme social distancing and try to draw a distinction with what the media is describing as a failed US policy towards combatting COVID-19. Indeed, CNN and MSNBC are now giving non-stop coverage to COVID-19 as they hype the “second wave” which they attribute to the reckless policies of Republican governors in Florida, Arizona and Texas.
Lost in all of this hyped coverage is any rational reporting of the facts. So let’s start with some basics. The total deaths in the US from COVID-19 is currently 426 per 1,000,000 people which is considerably less than the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy or Belgium. Of course, it’s possible that over time we will catch up to these countries, but the interesting fact is that a handful of states in the US are dramatically worse than other states. These states are New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. The media loves to talk about the rising rates in states like Arizona, Florida and Texas but the total deaths in these states are 1/5 of the rates in New York and New Jersey. Moreover, the 1-week average number of new cases appears to have peaked with states like Arizona clearly showing a decline. In short, the situation in the US is actually trending in the right direction as the Southern states are faring much better than the eastern Democratic-led states that embraced a total lockdown.
We wonder why President Trump does not make a more forceful case that his policies are working. Not only did the nation bend the curve on COVID-19 but states like Florida and Texas are not running out of hospital beds, PPE, or ventilators. In short, Trump has achieved what the original objective was by bending the curve. Forcing a 6 month nationwide lockdown was never in the cards and would have permanent damage to the American economy. So far, there is very limited evidence to suggest that extreme forms of lockdowns work better than the more muted approach followed by Sweden or many of the Southern States. Even California, whose Governor has embraced an extreme lockdown approach, had a rise in cases.
If the southern states follow the same trajectory in terms of new cases as the east coast states did, the rates will improve dramatically over the next month and by September the rates will be very low. This will validate Trump’s approach to handling the virus and could provide a huge pick-up in support by mid-September heading into October and November. It will also raise questions why so many schools and colleges have shut their doors. In short, we think that the current COVID hystria is all about politics. By the end of the Summer, the COVID numbers will be improving across the country which will make it harder to maintain the mainstream hysteria and could significantly change the trajectory of polling and the race for the White House.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 