Presidential Race Tightens

Several pieces of evidence suggest that the Presidential race has started to tighten. Perhaps the most visible evidence has been the change in the polling from Rasmussen. Rasmussen has a daily presidential approval poll and on Friday it showed that Trump’s approval has risen to 49% and that he is now tied in a head-to-head national match up with Biden. While some other polls still have Biden leading by 7-10%, we believe that the Rasmussen polling should be considered directionally right, even if the race still favors Biden. The Rasmussen polls are of likely voters, not registered voters, and have tended to be more favorable to Trump then most other polls.

We continue to believe that there is a “silent Trump voter” phenomenon. We saw further evidence of this with a new poll released by the Cato Institute showed that 62% of voters agree that the political climate these days prevents me from saying things I believe because others might find them offensive.” However, among strong conservatives the number was 77% while strong liberals only agreed 42% of the time. Shockingly, 31% of strong liberals believed it would be appropriate to fire someone at their business if they were a Trump supporter. No wonder that Trump supporters are often hesitant to publicly voice their support. We think that carries over to polling.

Why is Trump picking up ground? We see several potential reasons:

• First, Trump held a news conference on the Coronavirus on Monday and laid out how his administration has been helping to address the pandemic. Additionally, the numbers of COVID-19 have started to show progress in states like Arizona and Florida.
• Second, the rioting, rising crime and anti-Police sentiment associated with the ongoing protests may be having a backlash. Biden has aligned himself with the protestors while Trump has aggressively sought to end the violence and vandalism against our nation’s buildings and parks.
• Third, Biden’s public appearances continue to be problematic. He appears frail, continues to commit almost daily gaffes, and has to be rescued by handlers who step in to end interviewers when he begins to meander or have a mental freeze.
• Fourth, Biden unveiled a number of policy proposals with higher taxes that may be turning off voters. For example, Biden announced that he wanted to end 1031 tax deferrals for sale of real estate, a move that would be particularly harmful for commercial real estate, an industry already crushed by COVID-19. Likewise, his proposals to undermine local zoning laws to expand high density low-income housing in suburbs may be backfiring with suburban voters.
• Fifth, Trump has been outspoken with his support for re-opening the schools whereas Biden has been largely silent on the issue.

We still see some major headwinds for Trump. Most notable is the weak economy which has been derailed by COVID-19 and the massive lockdowns. There are also some major events coming up, perhaps most importantly Biden’s VP selection. The two top contenders appear to be Senator Harris and former Obama National Security Advisor Susan Rice. We don’t think either of the two are that strong candidates, but believe that Rice would be a particularly weak choice.

For political enthusiasts, the next few months will be fascinating. Our bet is that more signs will emerge that the race is tightening, even if Biden continues to be the favorite.