With both the Democratic and Republican conventions having been downsized and campaign rallies curtailed due to the coronavirus, the Presidential debates are likely to take center stage. The Committee on Presidential Debates has announced the final schedule of debates:
- The first debate will feature Trump and Biden and take place on September 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio at Case Western University and the Cleveland Clinic.
- The second debate will be the only vice-presidential debate with Pence squaring off against the to-be-named Democratic VP candidate at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah on October 7, 2020.
- The third debate will again feature the Presidential candidates and take place at the Adrienne Arsht Center for Performing Arts in Miami, Florida on October 15, 2020.
- The fourth and final debate will be the last Trump – Biden match up and take place at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee on October 22, 2020.
Each of the debates will be 90 minutes long and be broadcast by the major networks. Each debate will be moderated by a single moderator. The moderators will be announced in early September. The first and third presidential debates will be 6 fifteen minute segments run by the moderator while the second presidential debate will reflect questions asked by voters from Miami.
We believe that the first debate will be the most important. Republicans are pushing the notion that Biden is too old and increasingly feeble. If Biden performs well in the first debate, it will go a long way to address concerns about his age. However, if he falters and has a gaffe prone night, we think it could change the course of the election. In some ways, Trump may be at a disadvantage as he did not have a series of primary debates to prepare. On the other hand, Biden did not perform that well in most of the Democratic debates. Moreover, now he will be forced to debate 1:1 with Trump, whereas in the Democratic primary debates he frequently was saved by the bell or could hide among five or six candidates. On balance, we think Trump has the advantage in the debates, but look for Biden to come out swinging and be aggressive. Biden needs to avoid the brain freezes that have plagued his media appearances this year. The Vice-Presidential debate usually does not have the same significance, but with concerns about Biden’s age, it’s possible that this will be the first chance for voters to meet and get to know his VP choice who could easily become President. She (Biden’s VP running mate) will face Pence, a proven politician and competent debater, not showy but definitely capable.
The final two Presidential debates will further the storyline that is generated in the first debate. We also look forward to the SNL debate videos that will amplify the themes that emerge from the first debate. All four debates will occur in a 4 week period from September 29 to October 22. With the campaigns curtailed by COVID-19, we believe that the debates will have extra importance. History is full of meaningful debates: JFK’s more youthful look over the poorly shaved Nixon, Gerald Ford’s lack of knowledge about Poland and Eastern Europe, George Bush looking at his watch in the Richmond debate against Clinton, Al Gore’s loud sighing while Bush was speaking, Reagan’s memorable line about not making Mondale’s youth an issue, and Trump’s combative debates against Hillary Clinton. 2020 will produce similar memorable moments. In our view, these four weeks will determine the 2020 race for the White House.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 