There is an increasingly large political divide between Republicans and Democrats on the use of absentee ballots or votes by mail. According to a recent poll by ABC / Washington Post, 50% of Democrats but only 20% of Republicans plan to vote by mail. Democrats appear increasingly nervous of voting due to fears about coronavirus. In contrast, Republicans are much more confident in voting in person.
The conventional wisdom is that the absentee ballots will favor Democrats. However, we are not so sure. One of the interesting notes about voting by mail is that a higher percentage of votes get thrown out due to errors in filling out the forms, not signing the form correctly or otherwise not complying with the law. According to recent studies, usually 5-8% of absentee ballots are thrown out. Compare this to in-person voting where nearly 100% of voters are able to vote properly given the in-person help.
So if absentee ballots merely replace in-person voting, the use of mail-in-voting will likely lessen, rather than increase the share of Democratic votes. Indeed, if 80% of Republicans vote in person whereas only 50% of Democrats do, but a significantly higher percentage of absentee ballots are improperly completed, it could easily give Republicans a ~2% advantage, sufficient to make a difference in a swing state. Of course, if absentee voting increases the overall participation rate, it could result in a larger share of Democratic voter participation.
We will continue to monitor upcoming primary elections to see if Trump or Biden supporters turn out in higher numbers. Our sense is that turnout is going to be critical in November, but would encourage voters to turn out in person rather than voting by mail. The likelihood of your vote not counting is much higher when you send in your vote by mail. Indeed, in a close election, it could easily swing the election to the candidate with more in-person voters, which we believe favors President Trump..
NewEnglandPolitics.com 