Having promised to select a female Vice President, Biden seems to be struggling to select a Vice President. Originally, Biden indicated that he would be announcing his selection this week, but news has now trickled out of the campaign that Biden has not yet made a decision and has pushed back his decision to at least the following week. Moreover, the Biden team has been inundated by senior Democratic leaders lobbying for their preferred candidate.
Of course, Biden’s age (78) and recent feebleness on the campaign has heightened the importance of the Vice President, as it seems quite possible that Biden may not run in 2024 for a second term if he were to win this year. Biden’s Vice President would undoubtedly become the front runner for the 2024 nomination.
According to PredictIt, the most likely candidates are: Senator Kamala Harris (45%), Susan Rice (25%), Representative Karen Bass (14%), Senator Tammy Duckworth (10%), Senator Elizabeth Warren (7%). and Representative Val Demming (7%). Note that the % equates to the betting odds that you have to pay so that the total may exceed 100%, but it is indicative of the candidates that the market believes are most likely.
The problem for Biden is that none of these candidates are that strong. Let’s start with Senator Harris. While she remains the front-runner, we suspect that if Biden wanted to select her, he would have done so already. Word has trickled out that Biden’s good friend and former Senator Chris Dodd, who is helping to run the VP selection process, commented that Harris had shown no remorse for her attack on Biden for failing to support busing to end school desegregation in one of the debates. Harris also ran a poor presidential campaign, had difficulty staying on message, and is seen by Biden aides as having her own agenda.
Biden appears to have the most personal comfort level with former National Security Advisor Susan Rice. Rice, however, is a political lightening rod given her public role in the Benghazi affair when she went on national TV and gave false information about the origin of the incident. She also was at the center of Spygate and the campaign to spy on Trump and his campaign. Finally, she has never held elective office and is untested as a politician.
There has been a lot of recent press suggesting that Biden is vetting Representative Karen Bass, head of the Black caucus and former speaker of the California legislature. Bass, however, has considerable baggage. For starters, she is not well-known nationally. Most importantly, she has been a close ally of Cuba’s longtime dictator Castro. In the 1970s, she was a member of the Venceremos Brigade, a joint Cuba-American group made up of left-wing supporters of the Communist government. As recently as 2016, she called Castro “commandante en jefe” (commander in chief) and praised his leadership in Cuba. With Florida’s Cuban vote playing an important role in perhaps the single most important state, we believe it would be a huge mistake for Biden to select Bass.
Senators Duckworth and Warren are more national figures who each bring something different to the ticket. Duckworth is a disabled veteran with a powerful life story that we think makes her perhaps the best overall choice. However, Duckworth is not black (her mother was from Thailand) and Biden seems to be leaning toward selecting a black female. The BLM movement has pushed him towards this position and we think if he fails to do so, we could see considerable tension within the party. Warren also has the same issue and add to it that her far left ideology may be problematic. Additionally, should Biden select Warren, her seat would be filled by a Republican Governor (albeit a very liberal one) and that could make it more difficult for Democrats to win the Senate.
Finally, Representative Val Demming is being considered as a black female and a legislator from Florida who could help Biden win this important state. However, Demming is not well known nationally and may not appear ready to be President.
In short, Biden has put himself in a difficult position by limiting his choices to a handful of female candidates. The goal of picking a Vice President is often not to do any damage and to potentially help appeal to a demographic or state. Trump’s selection of Mike Pence was a masterful choice who solidified the evangelical vote and helped win over more traditional Republicans. In contrast, Hillary Clinton’s choice of Senator Tim Kaine was a do no harm choice that probably did not have any effect on the election. We think Biden’s best choice would be Senator Duckworth followed by Harris. We don’t think Bass, Demming, Rice or Warren would be a smart choice as each raises significant issues. Even Harris is not a perfect choice, but at least we think that Duckworth and Harris are national political figures who appear more qualified to be President.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 