As we approach the Fall, it is becoming clear that the election is tightening. A few weeks ago as CNN and MSNBC were reporting on the coronavirus pandemic and jobless claims were growing due to the lockdown, it appeared that Joe Biden was headed to a landslide victory over President Trump. Now, four weeks later, the narrative has changed. Biden still leads, but it has become clear that the election is tightening. Trump’s approval levels have rebounded while Biden’s have stagnated. Today, we had a poll showing Trump regaining the lead in the key battleground state of North Carolina and another showing his approval level at 48%, just a few percent shy of 50%. What’s driving the change? We see three primary reasons.
First, the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over. Despite the non-stop cable news coverage of the pandemic, Americans are starting to realize that it’s time to get back to work. Coronavirus rates are falling nationwide, even in states hard hit by the pandemic such as Florida and Arizona. Moreover, the hyperbole about the pandemic has been exposed as partial fear mongering. Trump has wisely staked out a position in favor of re-opening schools while Biden remains silent on what he believes. Today, Trump tweeted in favor of the “#wewanttoplay” movement as college football players rally to keep college sports. In contrast, Democratic Governors are doubling down on cancelling school. Perhaps the worst is New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Phil Murphy whose onerous school plans have lead to the cancellation of in-person classes at Princeton University for all students. Americans are craving normalcy and Trump has wisely decided to back the return of school, football and apple pie.
Second, Trump’s law and order message is starting to resonate. Following the death of George Floyd, there was widespread bipartisan condemnation of excessive police force and sympathy for victims. However, as the movement has evolved into “Defund the Police” and coupled with rising violent crime in our nation’s cities from New York to Los Angeles, the narrative is changing. New Yorkers are fleeing the rise in crime and drugs that is popping up in even the most fashionable New York City addresses. The same story is playing out in Minneapolis, Portland and Louisville. As violent crime surges, the appeasement strategies of Democratic mayors and governors seem increasingly out of step with reality. While Biden has wisely not embraced all of the “defund the police” rhetoric, he has remained largely silent, trying not to antagonize the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Third, Biden continues to under impress voters. It seems that Biden commits another cringeworthy verbal flub almost daily. In many ways, Biden is fortunate to be running during the middle of a coronavirus pandemic because it has enabled him to stay largely hidden and avoid challenging in person events or interviews. He has also managed to botch the roll-out of his vice presidential pick, having postponed the decision several times as if he was struggling to find an acceptable choice. The most likely candidates (Kamala Harris and Susan Rice) both have notable drawbacks and have been subject of whisper attacks by Democratic leaders favoring other choices. What should have been a unifying moment seems to be on the verge of disappointing many Democrats.
It would be wrong to say that Biden is no longer the favorite. He remains the leader. However, it’s equally clear that Trump has gained over the past three weeks. Trump still trails in most polls, but even the more liberal leaning sites like 538 recognize that he has narrowed the gap. With almost 90 days to go, Trump is starting to find his message and may be within striking distance. The changes show up in betting markets that now have Biden as a 60-40 favorite to beat Trump, down from recent highs. With another 90 days to go, it’s way too early to call this race for Biden.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 