On Tuesday, Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his VP running mate. Biden’s selection was met by praise from Democratic faithful and derision by President Trump and his Republican supporters. We think the selection was neither a home run nor a disaster. Let’s review how we got here.
Biden promised that he would select a woman to be his running mate early in the primaries. He also said that he would appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court. In doing so, Biden signaled that he was not intending to select a black woman for VP. However, events overtook Biden as he owed his win in the primary to black voters in South Carolina. Then, the death of George Floyd put the Black Lives Matter movement at the forefront of politics, but Biden committed a series of verbal blunders on race (“you ain’t black” and “are you a junkie”) that left him vulnerable. Biden would likely have selected Senator Amy Klobuchar, Senator Tammy Duckworth or Governor Gretchen Whitmer, but events overtook him. Forced to select a black female, the campaign searched for a strong black female candidate.
The reality was that the pool of black female VP candidates was never that deep. Most of the candidates that were considered were simply not viable. Representatives Val Demming and Karen Bass were essentially unheard of by most Americans. Former Ambassador Susan Rice has never been elected to any office and is a controversial figure (Syria, Rwanda, and Benghazi). Failed Gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams has never held a significant position, either elected or appointed. In short most of the potential candidates were not credible. Biden did not want to select Harris given the way that she had treated him in the debates, accusing him of being racist for opposing busing, but in the end, she was the only credible pick among black female candidates.
How effective will Harris be on the campaign trail. We’re not sure. She had a few notable moments in the early moments of the primary campaign, but then struggled to stay on message and had to pull out of the race even before the first votes were cast in Iowa. At her core, she is opportunistic, eager for political power and changes political positions regularly to suit the moment. Yet, for all her flaws, she is well-known, a capable public speaker, and potentially may appeal to both women and minorities.
Our prediction is that Biden’s selection of Harris is probably neutral. He could have done worse, but ultimately it’s Trump v. Biden.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 