There are a host of interesting political predictions and polls out. Let’s start with the pundits. Nate Silver at 538 released his long awaited Presidential model and strangely enough it says that Biden has a 72% chance of winning while Trump is at 28%. What’s so strange about this prediction? Well, it’s exactly the same prediction that Silver gave Hillary in his final prediction the day before the election in 2016. Talk about deja vu! Silver also highlights a slightly unusual path to victory for Trump: winning Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Maine 2nd district, Nebraska 2nd district, Arizona, Florida and then Minnesota. Silver believes that Trump has a better chance of winning Minnesota then Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin.
Next, we go to JHK Forecasts. JHK has Biden as a 84% to 16% favorite which is slightly lower than two weeks ago when they had the race 88%-12%. JHK sees a Democratic sweep, with a 61% chance of winning the Senate and a 98% chance of winning the House. In terms of the Presidential race, JHK believes that Biden will win in a landslide with 343 electoral votes to Trump’s 195. JHK views the key Senate races as Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. They view Democrats as likely to win Maine and North Carolina by 2-3% which would be sufficient to move the Senate into Democratic hands.
Next up, let’s turn to the betting markets. Our favorite market is PredictIt. A Biden win sells for 59 cents while a Trump win sells for 43 cents. This is about 5 cents closer than three weeks ago, confirming that the race has tightened. The Harris nomination seems to have had little to no impact on the betting markets. In terms of the Senate, the betting markets are at 61% and in the House the betting market has it at 85%. Interestingly, the Senate and House are quite close to the JHK forecasts but the Presidential race seems much closer in the betting markets.
Finally, we look at the most recent general election polls. Fox News new poll has Biden leading by 7%, but that is closer than July 8% or June 12%. Fox, however, also asks an interesting question about voters think their neighbor is going to vote for. Here, Trump leads by 5%, although there is a larger degree of uncertainty. This question is used by pollsters to try and understand secret voters who may be afraid to say who they are supporting. Are these quiet Trump voters coming clean? It’s possible. The latest Hill/Harris poll shows Biden up by +4% which is indicative a much closer election. The Hill/Harris poll reflects an electorate that looks like 2016 and indicates that 9% of the voters remain uncertain.
To sum up: Democrats have the advantage but the races for Presidency and Senate are tightening and suggest a tight campaign ahead. We were particularly struck by Silver’s path to victory for Trump. Lightening could strike twice.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 