We’ve been highlighting for about two weeks that we think the race for the White House is tightening. Tonight, CNN grudgingly told its readers that indeed the race was tightening. CNN’s latest monthly poll has Biden leading 50% to 46%, a 10% shift in one month. That is a huge move and reflects polling after Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as his Vice President. Even more interesting is that in the 15 so-called battleground states (10 of which Trump won in 2016, 5 of which Clinton won in 2016), the race is even closer with Biden leading 49% to 48%. The bottom line is that the poll suggests a dramatic tightening of the race.
We highlight two interesting things about the poll. First, it was post the VP selection of Kamala Harris. Second, the wording of the polling said Trump/Pence v. Biden/Harris. We wonder if this wording swung a few votes to the Trump/Pence ticket. We note that a few days earlier, the NBC poll had Biden leading by +9% so the CNN poll could be an outlier. Still, historically, the CNN poll has been among the most favorable to Biden, so it’s worthwhile to take notice.
Democrats had expected Harris to solidify and grow support among the Black community. However, it seems that Harris’s nomination has had little to no discernible additional demand for Biden. The DNC Convention, which will be entirely virtual, kicks off tomorrow on Monday. Normally, there is a convention lift but with the event entirely virtual, we doubt that there will be a similar boost. Monday’s speakers include Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andrew Cuomo. Tuesday will feature Bill Clinton, Jill Biden and a short pre-recorded message from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Wednesday will highlight Kamala Harris, President Obama, Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi. Finally, Biden will take center stage on Thursday along with Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang. We think all eyes will be on the Biden, Harris, AOC and Sanders speeches.
The latest polls will have Democrats very nervous. The memory of 2016 will give Democrats nightmares of what might happen in 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 