The US Senate is shaping up to be a truly wide open event that could easily go either way in November. One of our favorite forecasters, JHK Forecasts, currently gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning the Senate and Republcans a 39% chance, but the single most likely outcome is 50-50 with the VP (most likely Kamala Harris) casting the deciding vote. We also have a few new polls that shed light on several races that appear to be tightening.
The big 3 races to watch are North Carolina, Maine and Iowa. Republicans need to hold 2 of these 3 races. In North Carolina, the Democrat Cal Cunningham has a razor thin lead over Republican Thom Tillis. Trump’s numbers have been trending up in NC which we think will help Tillis. In Maine, Democrat challenger Sara Gideon has a 4% lead over Republican Senator Susan Collins. Collins is the last Republican in the Senate from New England. With polls consistently showing her as trailing, we believe she is the underdog. In Iowa, Republican Senator Jodi Ernst is essentially tied with her Democrat challenger. These three races will likely decide the evening.
That said, there are a number of other interesting races. For Republicans, there is upside in Alabama where Republican Tommy Tuberville is leading Democratic incumbent Doug Jones. It will be difficult to get a second Republican pick up but we highlight two potential races. In Michigan, Republican John James is challenging Democratic incumbent Gary Peters. James has been trailing by double digits, but last week a CNBC poll showed James closing the gap to only 3%. Then in Minnesota, Republican Jason Lewis is facing Democratic incumbent Tina Smith. Similar to Michigan, latest polling shows Lewis down by 3% while Trump is now in a dead heat in Minnesota. Both of these elections are intriguing opportunities for Republicans.
The bigger story, however, is that Democrats have numerous chances for gains in seats currently held by Republicans. Perhaps the most endangered are in Arizona and Colorado. Latest polling has Martha McSally down by 6% in Arizona against Mark Kelly, but that is a large improvement on earlier polling that had Kelly with a double digit lead. In Colorado, former Democratic Governor Hickenlooper is the favorite against Republican Cory Gardner. There has not been recent polling in Colorado, but the state is trending Democratic. Republicans are also defending two senate seats in Georgia, a state that has become a swing state. Republican Senator Perdue is favored to hold his seat but the second seat is a special election where the top two candidates will move to a run-off if no candidate gets 50%. There are four strong candidates running, two Republican and two Democratic. We think it will almost certainly go to a run-off. Democrats also have a chance of picking up a seat in Montana where Steve Bullock is challenging Republican incumbent Steve Daines. The latest polling has Daines with a slim lead.
There are a lot of close races that could go either way. How Trump runs at the top of the ticket could sway the outcome in key states like Maine or Colorado. We believe that the outcome of the Senate will be extremely important for public policy. If Biden wins, but Republicans hold the Senate, it will force Biden to govern towards the middle. If the Democrats sweep and win the Senate, policy will shift radically towards the progressives. If Trump wins and Republicans hold the Senate, Republicans can continue to nominate conservative judges, reshaping the judiciary. There will also be likely one or two Supreme Court picks that will have lasting impact on the nation. Bottom line: we think the Senate races are as important as the Presidential election this year.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 