The 2020 campaign promises to be the strangest election of our lifetimes. On one hand, the polls show the incumbent President Trump trailing former Vice President Biden by a margin of roughly 7.5% according to the Real Clear Politics average. Nate Silver’s 538 has Biden as a 75%-25% favorite over Trump, JHK Forecasts has Biden favored 79%-21%. UVA’s Larry Sabato says that “Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset.” In sum, among the political experts, everyone expects Biden to win, but after being embarrassed in 2016, they are all hedging their bets, giving Trump a 1:4 or 1:5 chance of winning.
So much for the polls. What’s truly odd about this year’s campaign is that Trump is everywhere while Biden is being largely hidden by his handlers. Let’s review this week. Yesterday, Trump appeared at a rally in Michigan in front of nearly 5,000 cheering supporters. In contrast, Biden had a “campaign event” with 7 voters sitting in circles 15 feet apart. Trump spoke for nearly 90 minutes, Biden barely spoke more than 30 minutes and had to read off cards. The day before, Trump released a list of 20 potential Supreme Court Justices, the same thing he did in 2016 when he broke precedent and released a list of judges from which he would select a justice for the Supreme Court. In his first term, both of his choices for the Court, Brent Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, came from the original list. Biden has not indicated who he might select for the Court.
Today, on 9/11, Trump spoke at two remembrances for Flight 93 in Pennsylvania and then returned to the White House where he announced a historic Peace Agreement between Israel and Bahrain, continuing a remarkable series of events in the Middle East that just a few years ago would have been unthinkable. Then later in the day he awarded the Medal of Honor to member of the armed forces. In contrast, Biden went to New York City to participate in the 9/11 Remembrance and remarked that “I’m not gonna make any news today” … which could perhaps be the slogan for his entire campaign. Biden is running a very limited schedule, even less than Hillary did four years ago. The National Review noted that in the last 9 days, Biden took 3 of them off and made limited public remarks on the other 6 days. He never meets with more than a handful of voters and rarely takes unscreened questions from reporters. In short, Biden is running the lowest profile campaign in the history of modern politics.
Why is he so sheltered from public eye? There are two possible answers. The first is that Biden wants to avoid making his trademark gaffes and believes that he can win simply by doing nothing and running out the clock. This theory is premised on the notion that Trump is so unpopular that all Biden needs to do is not offend voters and he will win. The second answer is that the Biden is so frail and old that it would be taxing for him to campaign more regularly. We suspect that there is some truth to both answers. Biden is aging rapidly in front of our eyes. He frequently appears lost at campaign events and during interviews. Just as FDR’s health issues were hidden by the press from the public, one suspects that the press is hiding Biden’s health challenges from serious scrutiny.
The debates may be the only events that stand between Biden and the Presidency if the polls are to be believed. The media has acquiesced to Biden’s non-campaign. They frequently cheer at his so-called press conferences. They don’t complain when his handlers announce at 9AM in the morning that Biden is done for the day. They are doing the blocking and tackling while Biden naps.
How will it all end up? We are not sure, but 2016 shows the danger of not hustling during a campaign. If energy and sweat determine the election outcome, it’s going to be Trump in a landslide. If the campaign was over before it started, then it’s going to be Biden. Less than two months until we find out which narrative was correct.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 