With the election less than 50 days a way, we thought we would revisit the must win states for each candidate. In our minds, there is one pivotal state for each candidate: Florida for Trump and Pennsylvania for Biden.
On November 3, when we are watching returns, Florida is going to tell us a lot about how the night is going. In 2012, when Obama pulled ahead in Florida, we all knew that he was headed to victory over Romney. In 2016, when Trump won Florida, we knew it would be a long evening. Without Florida, Trump’s path to victory is very hard to see. Florida constitutes 29 electoral delegates, more than Michigan plus Wisconsin. If Trump is winning Florida, it means he probably will also win North Carolina and Georgia. So early in the night, all eyes will be on the vote count coming out of Florida. Polls show a very competitive race in Florida, but we think Trump can run up the tally in the Panhandle and rural areas, win the Cuban vote, and hold Biden close in Miami Dade just as he and Governor DeSantis did in 2016 and 2018.
What’s Biden’s must win state? We think it’s Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio and then adds Pennsylvania, he becomes really hard to beat. On the other hand, if Biden can win Pennsylvania, his chances rise exponentially. First, the party registration and demographics favor Biden. This is a state that Democrats have won regularly over the past 30 years, only losing in 2016. Biden needs to run up the score in Philadelphia and perform well in suburbs to overcome Trump’s advantages in rural areas. The disenfranchisement of the Green Party may boost Biden as does the extension of the ballot date for receiving votes for 3 additional days. If its close on election night, the vote in Pennsylvania will likely become more democratic as additional ballots trickle in after Election day. The law change imposed by Supreme Court was an overt attempt to influence the results. However, we are not sure that the large vote by mail constituency among Democrats is wise. A higher % of mail-in ballots are usually thrown out, so unless voting by mail enlarges the electorate, this approach could hurt Democrats. Polls currently show Biden leading by about 4% in Pennsylvania so he has to be viewed as the favorite.
So what are the easiest paths to victory? For Trump, if he wins Florida along with North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio, that gives him 248 electoral votes. He still needs 22 more to win. We think his best chance is to win Arizona (11), Maine’s 2nd district (1), and then he has to pick up 10 more. He will have to win one of the following: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota or both New Hampshire and Nevada. If he loses Arizona, he would have to win two of the mid-West states.
How about Biden? If he holds Pennsylvania, his chances go way up. With Pennsylvania and other solidly Democratic states, he starts at 242. Our bet is that if Biden wins Pennsylvania, he’s also likely to do fairly well in the mid-western states and will likely carry Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. If he does, he wins the presidency even if he does not flip any of Arizona, North Carolina or Florida. Polls have Biden leading in all of these states, so we think this is the easiest path to victory for Biden. Accordingly, look for Biden to be a regular in Pennsylvania. If he can hold the state, then the Presidency likely awaits him.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 