The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg has brought the Supreme Court back to the forefront of electoral politics. Ginsburg was a legendary Justice, a champion of the rights of women, and the leader of liberal jurisprudence in America. Her death will energize both the left and the right. It’s way too early to know who this helps in the election, but the immediate question is whether Trump will nominate a successor to Ginsburg prior to the election.
Many political commentators have already come out and said that he should not and allow the winner of the Presidential election make that decision. Biden made the same point in a somber press conference last night reading off notes. Even some conservatives like Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics have said that the “smart Trump play happens to be the one with the best outcome for the country: not to nominate anyone.” We don’t think this is consistent with Trump’s historical approach to governing. Trump is not afraid of making decisions, not going along with the political establishment. He’s going to nominate a successor and ask the Senate to vote on his replacement.
As we write, Trump has just come out with a tweet that reads, “We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices. We have this obligation, without delay!” That is vintage Trump.
We believe that he will nominate one of the judges on his existing list. According to Predict It, the most likely nominees are Amy Coney Barrett and Britt Grant, both prominent female conservative judges. Barrett is particularly popular with conservatives. She is a judge on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, a former Notre Dame law professor, and former clerk for Justice Antonin Scalia, her mentor. Barrett is the mother of seven children (5 naturally and 2 adopted) and a strong catholic. Her nomination would electrify the pro-life movement and create vocal opposition from pro-abortion groups. Grant is a judge on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, a former Judge on the Georgia Supreme Court and former clerk for then Judge Brett Kavanaugh (before he served on the Supreme Court). Her selection would be well received by conservatives but would be less polarizing than Barrett.
Already, several liberal Republican senators have suggested they may not support a nominee before the election. For example, Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski has indicated that she thinks we should wait until after the inauguration in January. Others that are somewhat suspect include Senator Collins of Maine and the increasingly liberal Mitt Romney. On the other side, West Virginia’s Joe Mancin could cross party lines and support Trump’s choice. Of course, the appearance of blocking a woman from becoming a Supreme Court justice may not be the greatest optics for Democrats.
In short, our prediction is that Trump nominates either Barrett or Grant, the Senate starts the process for approving the nominee, but that Democrats and liberal Republicans block the nomination until after the election. This will, of course, force Biden to reveal who he would select for the court. Biden has already said that he is going to choose a black female for the court and we think he will have to do so. This election will then become a referendum on the two nominees to the Supreme Court: Trump’s choice v. Biden’s choice.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 