On Tuesday, many Americans will tune in to the first Presidential Debate of the 2020 Election in Cleveland, Ohio between President Trump and Vice President Biden. The debate will be moderated by Fox News Reporter Chris Wallace. Wallace has announced the six primary topics:
- The Trump and Biden records
- The Supreme Court
- The COVID-19 coronavirus
- The economy
- Race and violence in the cities
- The integrity of the election
We think that President Trump will come in and try to brand Biden as a globalist and socialist. On the Trump and Biden records, he will emphasize his “promises made, promises kept” lines about building the wall, bringing troops home from overseas, pulling out of NAFTA and other trade agreements, and moving the American embassy to Jerusalem. He will also highlight his Supreme Court picks, protecting the second Amendment, support for the Second Chance Act and Empowerment Zones, and law and order against crime. He will hit Biden hard for his historic support for China, the Iraq War, and proposals for tax increases.
Biden, on the other hand, will focus on COVID-19 and make the case that Trump is responsible for 200,000 dead Americans. He will also portray Trump as outside the mainstream and as a racist who has inflamed cities and hurt black Americans. He will assail Trump for seeking to replace Justice Ginsburg and suggest that Trump is seeking to abolish ObamaCare through the Supreme Court.
Going into the debate, it seems that Biden continues to hold a comfortable lead nationally. The latest national polls have the election somewhere between a 4% to 10% lead for Biden. Biden also continues to lead in most swing state polls, particularly those in the key Mid-Western swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Of course, this narrative assumes that you can believe the polls — something that we are less sure about given COVID-19 and the polarization of the electorate. Still, we think Trump needs a strong showing if he is going to close the gap.
Trump’s best scenario is for him to hit Biden hard on a subject and for Biden to have a brain freeze like he has done in several recent interviews. Biden needs to demonstrate that he is physically fit to be President and avoid the gaffes that have plagued several of his prior debate performances. He did well against Bernie Sanders in his final debate during the primary, but had several very weak performances earlier during the primary season as well as in recent interviews (“you ain’t black” or “180 years” in the Senate). Biden also has to come across as likable without becoming sanctimonious or an elitist. Trump needs to convey strength, a sense of purpose and thoughtfulness, and be well prepared on his defense of the COVID-19 response.
Biden has been preparing for the debate by reducing his time on the campaign trail, while Trump has been sprinting across the country energizing his base in rallies. If Biden performs well, commentators may commend his strategy, but if he performs poorly, the questions about his health will grow. In contrast, if Trump looks tired or unprepared, look for pundits to go after his lack of debate preparation. Anyway, we’re excited to see the heavy weight battle begin.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 