First debate takeaways

After months of speeches and tweets, President Trump and former Vice President Biden met in Cleveland on the same stage for the first debate. It was a slugfest as Trump aggressively challenged Biden and the two traded pointed attacks and countercharges. Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden, while Biden seemed exasperated at times. Here are the first takeaways:

• Biden passed the test of being competent and avoided any large mistakes. We think that probably helped his campaign and stopped the narrative that he is too feeble to be President.
• Trump came across as aggressive and strong, possibly too strong. The moderator Chris Wallace and Biden can’t control him. He is not afraid to say things or bring topics up (Hunter Biden’s money from Russia or Ukraine) that other politicians shy away from. He also may not have come across as likable.
• Conventional media will react in horror at Trump’s performance and score the debate as mess for the country and a victory for Biden.
• The conventional analysis may be the wrong way to assess this debate. With Trump. it’s always worth at least to consider the alternatives. Trump achieved a few things. First, he got Biden to say some things that he will regret. For example, Biden refuses to answer whether he will pack the court. This is a huge opening for Trump and one that will come up repeatedly in future arguments. Second, Trump attempted to drive a wedge between Biden and the progressive wing. For example, Biden claimed tonight that he does not support the Green New Deal. That is not going to sit well with AOC and the Sanders crowd. Trump also branded Biden as a socialist, a charge that Biden attempted to refute but then in doing so he may have alienated the Democratic base. Third, Trump forced Biden to debate on his terms. At first, it was Trump always interrupting, but then Biden started doing the same thing and by the end neither came across great.
• One of the keys to this election is going to be enthusiasm and turnout. Tonight’s debate was not a high moment for democratic oratory, but in becoming a slugfest, Trump may be trying to lower Biden’s positive rate and cut the turnout among progressives and less engaged voters. We know that Trump’s base is highly engaged and very enthusiastic, much more so than Biden’s. So it’s possible that a series of brawling debates do more to hurt Biden than Trump.

We close by reiterating that our initial reaction is to score the night as a win for Biden. Then again, we woke up to read that Telemundo’s poll of its Spanish speaking audience said that 66% gave the edge to Trump. It’s a reminder that with Trump, political observers may have to think differently.