We took a look at the most recent changes in political party registration in two key swing states: North Carolina and Florida. Interestingly, both states show a positive trend for Republicans.
First, let’s look at Florida. Florida has been the ultimate swing state. Who does not remember Bush – Gore and the hanging chads in the 2000 election? In 2000, there were 8 million registered voters. Today, there are 14 million registered voters in Florida. In 2000, Democrats had a 370,000 advantage over Republicans and constituted 43% of the electorate relative to 39% for Republicans. Fast forward to 2016 (when Trump defeated Hillary by over 100,000 voters), the gap between Republicans and Democrats had shrunk only slightly to 330,000. Both parties had seen decline in percentages of the electorate has become more independent. Over the last four years, the 330,000 Democratic advantage has fallen to 188,000 as of August 2020. Recent reports suggest that the trend has continued over the last week and now is closer to 150,000. In short, the GOP in Florida is growing much faster than the Democratic party. Today, the Florida electorate consists of 26% Independents, 36% Republicans, and 37% Democrats.
Second, we look at the pivotal state of North Carolina. In 2016, when Trump won North Carolina and Florida, we knew that Trump had a chance of winning. In 2020, polls suggest that it is a dead heat with Biden leading by 1% in the RCP average. However, if you look at the registration levels you see a very different picture. In 2008 when Obama won North Carolina, Democrats held an 800,000 registration advantage over Republicans. In 2016, the registration advantage had dropped to 645,000. Now, in 2020, the registration advantage has fallen further to 400,000. We repeat: Republicans have picked up 245,000 party affiliations over the past four years.
What accounts for the higher Republican registrants? It appears to be superior grass roots enthusiasm. We’ll have to see if this enthusiasm carries over to voting on election day, but when one looks at party registration in both key states, the trends are certainly favorable for Republicans and President Trump.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 