The Brookings Institute recently published an article entitled “Election 2020: A once-in-a-century, massive turnout?” which made the case that we would likely see an extraordinary voter turnout. The article noted that voters perceive a large difference between Trump and Biden and that the difference will lead to an extraordinary turnout. Pollsters, of course, are trying to predict who the likely voters are when conducting polls. The variance in those projections may explain why one recent national poll has Biden up by +13% while another by only +3%.
It’s certainly possible that the Brookings Institute is correct, but our gut tells us that the more likely scenario is that turnout will be lower than usual, not high. Here’s our thinking:
- First, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many citizens to be scared of going to public places and deterred robust efforts to register new voters. While there are unprecedented efforts to permit mail-in ballots, we sense that many voters will simply stay home given COVID.
- Second, COVID-19 has displaced many citizens, from college students not permitted to return to campuses to employees that have lost jobs. Displaced persons often do not vote.
- Third, there is little enthusiasm for former Vice President Joe Biden in the core Democratic constituencies, particularly among hispanic and black communities. There are strong emotions to defeat President Trump among many Democrats, but very little affirmative support for Biden.
- Fourth, the COVID-19 has deterred parties from being as active on the ground in knocking on doors and encouraging voters to turn out.
- Fifth, turnout in Democratic primaries and caucuses was moderate, often trailing direct comparisons from 2008 or 2016.
In sum, we think the cumulative effect of COVID-19 and the lack of enthusiasm for Biden is likely to lead to a lower turnout, not a higher turnout in 2020. We suspect that the impact of this low turnout could be sizable variance between the actual results and many likely voter polls.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 