The announcement that President Trump has COVID-19 sent shock waves through the political world. Trump had looked a bit tired in the debate on Tuesday and on Wednesday when he attended a rally in Deluth, Minnesota, his voice was clearly hoarse. Still, the President put on a great show in the rally, delivering his trademark lines and fighting spirit. In retrospect, we suspect that he was coming down with COVID-19.
Clearly, the first priority is for the health and well-being of the President. We were pleased to see Biden and even some prominent liberal commentators wishing the President well. That is the strength of our democracy. There were a few unfortunate twitter comments from Democratic activists and politicians (perhaps the most unfortunate being Connecticut’s Senator Chris Murphy who said that Putin would step in to help Trump), but by and large the reaction was more focused on the health of the President than the politics, as it should be.
So where does this leave us with the election? Well, first, the state of the race prior to the COVID-19 news was really not clear. We have had several very divergent political polls over the past few days which attempt to capture the post-debate narrative. For example, the CNBC national poll showed Biden opening up a huge 13% lead over Trump. However, the IBD poll came out with its latest national poll which has Biden’s lead dwindling to only 3% over Trump. Finally, we have a USC-Dornsife poll that takes a unique approach by polling the same 6000 people repeatedly over a several month period. The USC poll has consistently had Biden leading by 8-10% but on Friday it had Biden leading by only 3%. What explains the divergent polling? We think there are considerable differences in projecting what the likely turnout will look like. If it’s really a 10-13% race right now, then the election is likely over. On the other hand, if it’s a 3% race, then it’s probably a toss-up given the President’s advantages in the electoral college.
We think politically the President’s COVID-19 diagnosis could go in several different reactions. We think the most likely scenario is that the President will receive a brief boost in sympathy, recover from the COVID-19 virus relatively quickly, and resume campaigning in a few weeks. The impact from this scenario is probably neutral to slightly positive. A second plausible scenario is that the President’s condition is more serious and that he is blamed for failing to contain the virus and not responding adequately to the crisis. It’s too early to say which of these scenarios is more likely. We’ll have to wait and see the polling, but we think the diagnosis makes Trump a more sympathetic figure. We were speaking with a close Trump friend recently, and he reminded us that Trump is the hardest working person he knows. Our base hypothesis is that if Trump rebounds from the virus relatively quickly, it will be a net positive politically. On the other hand, if he gets really sick, we are less confident on how this will be perceived and think it could negatively impact his chances.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 