With less than a month to go before November 3, political polls are pointing to a solid Biden victory. The latest batch of polls show Biden opening up a larger margin of victory. Today, we had four national general election polls (Fox, Rasmussen, Economist, and Reuters) and all four showed a significant lead for Biden ranging from 9% to 12%. In swing states, Biden’s leads have also grown. According to PredictIt, Biden is now favored to win Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nate Silver’s 538 now gives Biden an 84% chance of winning, up from 72% just two weeks ago.
When there is that significant lead in the polls, it’s difficult to make a strong case that the polls are wrong. Indeed, Biden’s lead is greater than Clinton’s lead was in 2016. Additionally, polls now should be more aware of educational bias (ie. under polling high school, non-college graduates) that many pollsters attributed for their polling errors in 2016.
What accounts for Biden’s surge? We think there are two primary reasons. First, we think Trump’s first debate performance has hurt him. We wrote right after the debate that we thought that Trump overplayed his hand by interrupting too frequently, making Biden appear more Presidential. Secondly, we think Trump getting COVID has played into the mainstream media’s narrative that Trump is to blame for the COVID pandemic. Meanwhile, Biden continues to essentially hide, minimizing his public appearances to very controlled situations (even though they are completely scripted, he has had several gaffes, including a particularly bizarre statement this week about wanting to watch some girls dancing in four years) and refusing to say what he will do on important issues such as the Supreme Court.
Are there any signs that the polls could be that wrong? We offer a few observations:
- There are a few polls that continue to show a more competitive race, but the great majority show Biden ahead. Polls by Rasmussen are not biased against Trump, but even they show Biden leading. We think some of the extreme polls may be wrong (ie. CNN poll showing Biden up by 17%), but don’t see how they can be off by 8-10%.
- It’s possible that Trump voters will have greater enthusiasm than Biden voters. However, the enthusiasm metric is probably worth 1-2% at most.
- Early voting shows the Democrats with a significant lead on returned ballots. While this is expected due to Republican’s preference for voting in person, Democrats currently account for 55% of the early mail-in ballots v. 24% Republican, 19% Independent, and 1% minor parties. That’s a significant advantage to make up on election day.
In short, the best data that we have today point to a Biden victory. For Trump to win, there would have to be a significantly bigger polling error than in 2016. It’s certainly possible, but the best data we have today suggests that Biden is ahead of Trump. Of course, we could see a change over the next three weeks, but time appears to be running out for Trump.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 