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South Carolina’s primary on Saturday represents Joe Biden’s best chance to finally win a primary after nearly 25 years of running for the Presidency. Biden first ran for the Democratic nomination in 1998 but had to pull out after plagiarizing speeches. He tried again in 2008 but withdrew after a 5th place finish in Iowa. … Continue reading Can Biden finally win a primary and a brokered convention?

The latest Democratic debate turned into a brawl as all seven candidates yelled and interrupted each other while the crowd booed and the debate moderators lost control. UVA Professor of Politics Larry Sabato tweeted during the debtate that “Debates are essential, but TV networks welcome chaos, interruptions, and theatrics. Candidates shrink in size. The party … Continue reading Debate Undermines Democrats

While Bernie Sanders scored an impressive victory in the Nevada caucuses, the turnout figures were actually less impressive than they appear. Leading up to the caucuses, many press articles suggested that turnout would be strong. Typical was a Vox article that said “The 2020 Nevada caucuses are on track to break a voter turnout record,” … Continue reading Democratic turnout in Nevada less than expected

The magic number for Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination for President on the first ballot is 1,991 (the DNC requires 50% plus 1 delegate). There are 3,979 pledged delegates that will be eligible to vote in the first ballot in Milwaukee. If no candidate wins a majority on the first ballot, an additional … Continue reading Democratic delegate math: will Sanders have enough delegates to win on the first ballot?

The results from Nevada are trickling in, but it’s already clear that Bernie Sanders is going to score a huge victory. We had highlighted that Sanders needed to win a larger share of the vote to claim a clear win and based on the early vote coming in, it appears that Sanders is going to … Continue reading Nevada – Sanders wins big. Now what?

The Nevada Caucuses will take place on Saturday after four days of early voting which ended on February 18 and a raucous debate where Mayor Bloomberg was widely panned on his performance. Here are the key items to watch on Saturday: First, how much does Bernie Sanders win by? Anything less than an outright win … Continue reading Nevada Caucus Update

There are a lot of fascinating events in the race for the White House. We highlight a few developments here: First, we start with continued developments out of Iowa. Following the Iowa recanvassing of the caucus vote, Sanders moved into a virtual dead heat with Pete Buttigieg with each commanding 563 state delegate equivalents (SDEs). … Continue reading Latest from the campaign trail

With Iowa and New Hampshire behind us, the outcome of the Democratic nominating process remains unclear. Accordingly, we decided to lay out what we regard as the most likely scenarios going forward. Perhaps the most likely scenario is what we will call the Bernie Sanders plurality scenario. Under this scenario, Sanders continues to win the … Continue reading Likely Democratic Nomination Scenarios

With Bernie Sanders scoring a narrow plurality victory in New Hampshire over Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic race remains extremely unsettled. The results did little to clarify who will be the ultimate victor. Here are our key takeaways. First, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren had poor nights. Absent a miraculous recovery in Nevada … Continue reading Sanders? Buttigieg? Klobuchar?

The New Hampshire debate highlighted that the Democratic race is essentially becoming a two way race: Sanders v. the Establishment. Sanders has pushed aside Elizabeth Warren and become the candidate of the progressive left. Sanders’ advantage is that he is the most progressive candidate on every issue and his followers are very committed and have … Continue reading NH Debate – Sanders v. the Establishment