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With the vote from Iowa still trickling in and Impeachment behind us, here are five interesting story lines emerging. First, the results of the Iowa Caucus continue to trickle in but the outcome could not be more muddled. Bernie Sanders is leading the first and second round vote, but Pete Buttigieg is likely to win … Continue reading Latest from campaign trail …

The Iowa Circus, also known as the Iowa Caucus, proved to be unexpectedly chaotic. Before offering our thoughts on the big winners and losers, we take pride in the fact that we accurately predicted the outcome. On Sunday night, we released our predictions: Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, and Yang in that order. With 62% … Continue reading Iowa Circus Winners and Losers

Caucuses and primaries can be challenging to predict, but we thought we would provide our predictions for tomorrow night and top things to be on the lookout for. Let’s start with our predictions. We believe that Bernie Sanders will win, but recognize that in politics there are a lot of different potential outcomes. Here is … Continue reading NEP Prediction and Guide to Iowa

If anyone wondered if the intra-party wounds from 2016 had healed in the Democratic Party, the events of the past two days have highlighted how raw and fractured the party is. As Hulu prepares to release a four part documentary series on Hillary Clinton, Clinton was asked by a reporter if she stands by her … Continue reading #NeverBernie #NeverHillary

Iowa’s Secretary of State organizes a youth straw poll the week before the Iowa caucuses. The goal is to encourage young people to be active in public life. If you believe that children tend to support the candidates that their parents support, the youth straw poll can be instructive of who may do well in … Continue reading Trump and Yang win Iowa Youth Straw Poll

While most of the attention has been focused on the Democratic Caucus, we thought we would focus tonight on the upcoming Iowa Republican Caucus. President Trump faces opposition from two Republican challengers, former Representative Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld. Neither Walsh nor Weld is polling in double digits, with most polls showing … Continue reading Iowa Republican Caucus

With just a week to go before the Iowa Caucus next Monday night, there are a number of interesting stories brewing. We highlight five here. First, Democrats had hoped that the party would unite behind a single candidate who could lead the party against President Trump next November. However, even before the first caucus, the … Continue reading From the campaign trail …

Readers of this blog have known since early January that we believed that Sanders is the front runner. On January 3, 2019, we wrote that “it is Sanders who should be considered the Democratic front runner.” Now, suddenly, the mainstream media has caught on. Several new polls out of Iowa (Emerson) and New Hampshire (Boston … Continue reading Mainstream media wakes up to Sanders’ rise

Most mainstream political prognosticators believe that former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. According to Nate Silver at 538, Biden currently has a 41% chance to win the nomination, well above second place Bernie Sanders (23%). Another polling model by JHK Forecasts has Biden’s chances of winning the nomination … Continue reading Biden likely to underperform polls

We highlighted yesterday that early voting has already started in the State of Minnesota for the Presidential Primary on March 3rd. We believe that the early voting favors the better organized campaigns that can use get out the vote efforts to ensure their supporters get to the polls. Equally interesting is that anyone can vote … Continue reading State voting rules may impact primary outcomes