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With less than 60 days until the Iowa Caucus, we thought we would look back at history to see if we can get some insights into this year’s contest. In 2016, 2 months before the caucus, Hillary Clinton held a large lead in the national polls while Donald Trump was leading the Republican field. On … Continue reading A look back at Iowa Caucus history

With Buttigieg remaining at the top of polls in Iowa, progressives are starting to ramp up their criticism of the two term mayor from South Bend, Indiana. The criticism of Buttigieg seems to fall into three categories: too moderate, lack of appeal to black Americans, and inexperience. Let’s look at each of these criticisms. First, … Continue reading Progressives turn on Buttigieg

On February 3, 2020, Iowa Democrats will hold the first Presidential contest of the campaign. The RCP poll average for Iowa currently shows a close race with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in front with 24%, Sanders at 18%, Warren at 18% and Biden at 16% (and no one else polling above 5%). While these … Continue reading The Democratic Iowa Caucus Rules

Following a series of challenging media reports of internal campaign dissent and dire financial reports, Senator Kamala Harris made it official and announced that she was dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination. The once promising campaign unraveled after briefly surging after the first Democratic debate when she challenged Vice President Biden and … Continue reading Who benefits from Kamala’s departure?

While the Democratic Presidential primaries are sure to garner most of the attention over the next several months, we want to call attention to several interesting US Senate races in 2020 in New England. Four incumbent senators are running for re-election: Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Jack Reed (D-RI), and Ed Markey (D-MA). Republicans … Continue reading New England Senate Races to Watch

Elections are won and lost by a series of events that create impressions on voters, some lasting, others fleeting. The past few days have seen several sub-plots that we find interesting. Here are our top 5: The first subplot is the impact of China on the election. For a long time, the media has thought … Continue reading Lots of Political Subplots!

We all like to look closely at various political polls looking at the latest presidential approval levels, impeachment favorability, Democratic candidate support, and head-to-head matches between the President and potential Democratic candidates. The data is interesting and often quite instructive. However, just as much of the mainstream news is often biased, we highlight how polling … Continue reading Polling uncertainty and the bashful Trump voter

With only slightly more than two months until the first contest of the Democratic nominating process (the Iowa Caucus on February 3), we see the race as becoming a divisive contest between the Progressive and Establishment wings. We believe the Progressives have the advantage and will prevail. Let’s start with the Establishment wing and the … Continue reading A fight for the soul of the Democratic Party

On Friday evening, prominent news organizations are reporting that the multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg is preparing a massive TV blitz to announce his run for President, starting in early December, with an initial TV buy of $33 million over a two week period. Bloomberg, who is estimated to be worth $54 billion, could obviously spend a … Continue reading The Bloomberg Blitz

10 Democrats showed up in Atlanta for another debate and once again we watched the whole debate, while most voters undoubtedly turned it off. Interestingly, three of the top four candidates did not do that well while several of the second tier candidates (Klobuchar, Booker) seemed to have the strongest debates. Here are our key … Continue reading Democrats Debate Again