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Today’s New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper, the largest statewide newspaper, has an article entitled “Healthy NH Job Market attracting more workers, officials say.” In normal times, such an article would be a strong signal that the President Trump was well-situated to be re-elected. However, notwithstanding the strong economy, we believe Trump remains vulnerable. Trump’s approval … Continue reading Trump vulnerable despite strong economy

With Biden slipping in the polls, can his campaign turn it around? We think he still has a chance. We noticed that Biden’s team has started to question Warren’s electability against Trump. We think it is a fair point. Warren has never been a great vote getter in Massachusetts. She has tended to perform well … Continue reading Can Biden turn it around?

It’s always helpful to revisit the immediate takeaways from a debate to see what narratives have staying power. Our immediate takeaway was that of the top 3 candidates Elizabeth Warren had the best night by essentially meeting expectations. Politico has a story today entitled “The Ticking Time Bomb in Biden’s ‘Record Player’ Answer: It’s not … Continue reading Warren and Yang with the momentum!

With hopes of turning Texas blue, the Democratic Party staged its third debate in Texas, this time with a slimmed down line-up that put all of the leading three candidates (Warren, Biden and Sanders) on the stage together for the first time. Like most debates, it takes a few days for the narrative to emerge, … Continue reading The Third Debate

Another day and more signs that former Vice President Joe Biden’s status as the front runner has diminished. First, Economist/You Gov is out with a new national poll that has Senator Elizabeth Warren tied with Biden at 26% for the lead with Sanders in third with 16%. Then there is a Boston Herald/FPU poll for … Continue reading Warren, not Biden, is the front runner

Donald Trump is the most unconventional President in our history. His tweets, rallies, verbal battles with journalists, and flaunting of conventional wisdom is unprecedented in political history. That said, when you strip away the candidate and tactics, the reality is that Trump’s core re-election political message is quite conventional: Peace and Prosperity. Trump’s firing of … Continue reading Peace and Prosperity

The mainstream press is starting to pick up on what we have been highlighting now in several blogs. Biden is in trouble in New Hampshire. Politico has a lead article today entitled “Top Biden backer warns he’s at risk of losing New Hampshire.” We agree. We highlighted several weeks ago that in 2008 Biden performed … Continue reading Concerns over Biden in NH

Local press is reporting that Democratic presidential hopefuls Senator Kamala Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg are both coming to Greenwich, CT for fund raisers in one of America’s wealthiest communities. The visits continue a trend from 2016 when Hillary Clinton made repeated trips to Greenwich and surrounding Fairfield County to tap wealthy donors. Interestingly, Greenwich … Continue reading The Gold Coast in Connecticut

This Saturday the national political attention will turn towards Manchester, New Hampshire where all 19 Democratic Presidential candidates will be appearing at the New Hampshire Democratic Party State Convention. New Hampshire Democrats are feeling emboldened, citing polls that show President Trump’s popularity trailing in the state. NH Democrats have also out raised their Republican colleagues … Continue reading Big Event in New Hampshire

Historically, New Hampshire has had a sizable libertarian electorate both on the Republican and Democratic side. In the 2016 Presidential election, the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won 30,694 votes or 4% of the electorate, considerably more than Green candidate Jill Stein’s 6465 votes and more than 10x the vote differential between Hillary Clinton and Donald … Continue reading The Libertarian Vote and Tulsi Gabbard